The Met Office has issued an unprecedented warning that a strengthening El Niño weather pattern could push global temperatures to record highs this year, with potentially severe consequences for British agriculture. In its latest long-range forecast, the UK’s national weather service said there is a 70% chance that the El Niño event, already the strongest since 2015, will persist through the summer and autumn, disrupting rainfall patterns across Europe. This would likely lead to prolonged drought in southern England and excessive rainfall in Scotland, threatening wheat, barley, and fruit yields.
The warning comes as global average temperatures in April were 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, the highest for that month since records began in 1850. The Met Office’s Dr.
Rachel McCarthy stated that “the combination of El Niño and underlying climate change means we are entering uncharted territory for UK food production.” The National Farmers’ Union has called for emergency government support to help growers adapt irrigation systems and invest in drought-resistant crops. Meanwhile, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is reportedly drafting contingency plans to relax import restrictions on grain from non-EU countries should domestic harvests fail.
The situation is being closely monitored by the Cabinet Office, which has activated the Civil Contingencies Committee (COBRA) for periodic reviews. International implications are also significant: El Niño typically reduces harvests in Australia and Southeast Asia, further tightening global food supplies. The World Food Programme has already warned of rising hunger risk in developing nations.
In a statement, the Met Office emphasised that while El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its effects are amplified by warming oceans. The UK has experienced three consecutive years of below-average rainfall in key growing regions, and the current outlook suggests 2024 could be the driest on record for parts of East Anglia, a major arable farming area. Scientists at the University of Reading have modelled a worst-case scenario where British wheat production falls by 40% compared to the five-year average.
This would push domestic bread prices up by an estimated 15-20%, hitting low-income households hardest. The Treasury is understood to be exploring targeted subsidies to stabilise prices, but officials caution that any intervention must comply with World Trade Organisation rules. The Met Office will issue an updated forecast in June, which will inform the government’s National Food Strategy review due later this year.
