The abduction of a retired Nigerian general and his wife in the north-west region marks another grim milestone in the country's escalating security crisis. The incident, which occurred on the outskirts of Kaduna, underscores the government's failure to contain banditry and kidnapping-for-ransom syndicates that have turned the region into a no-go zone. For investors, this is yet another data point in the risk assessment of Nigeria's sovereign credibility.
The capital flight we have witnessed over the past year, with foreign portfolio outflows exceeding $2 billion, is not a coincidence. It is a direct consequence of a government that spends billions on subsidies while neglecting basic law and order. The fiscal arithmetic is simple: when security collapses, the risk premium on sovereign debt widens, yields spike, and the naira weakens.
This is not a humanitarian issue; it is a bottom-line issue for anyone holding Nigerian assets. The central bank's constant interventions in the forex market will not offset the structural rot. Until the government demonstrates a credible commitment to internal security, the market will continue to price in a higher discount rate for Nigerian risk.
