The Royal Navy has placed two Type 45 destroyers on standby in the Gulf of Oman following a devastating attack on a cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. The incident, which occurred at 03:42 local time, has prompted the United Nations to initiate a full evacuation of all non-essential personnel from the strategic waterway. While details remain scarce, initial reports suggest a limpet mine or small drone strike breached the hull of the MV Star Horizon, a Liberian-flagged container ship en route to Fujairah. Three crew members are missing, presumed dead.
The timing is catastrophic. The Strait of Hormuz chokes 21% of the world's petroleum transit. Any disruption here sends shockwaves through global supply chains, and this attack feels different. It is not a warning shot. It is a statement of capability. The question is: who? Houthi rebels have targeted shipping before, but their drones lack the range for this deep into the Gulf. Iran denies involvement, though its Revolutionary Guard is the only regional actor with the submarines and expertise to place a limpet mine unnoticed. But why now? The UN evacuation suggests a third party fears escalation. The US Fifth Fleet has already raised its alert status to DEFCON 3.
I worry about the user experience of society here. The algorithm that governs global trade is fragile. One node fails and the entire system hiccups. We saw it with the Ever Given in 2021. This is worse. Insurance premiums for Gulf transits will spike instantaneously. Lloyd's of London will update its risk models within hours. And the average consumer? They will not see a petrol shortage this week. But next month, when refineries in Fujairah run short of crude? That 2% price hike at the pump is the invisible hand of chaos.
The Royal Navy's move is both tactical and symbolic. Two Type 45s, HMS Defender and HMS Diamond, are designed for air defence. They can protect other ships from missile attack but are ill-equipped to hunt submarines or divers. Their presence is a deterrent, a piece of theatre. The real defence lies in the underwater surveillance network of the UK's Astute-class submarines, but those are never mentioned in press releases.
What I find fascinating and terrifying is the information warfare component. Within minutes of the attack, a Telegram channel claiming affiliation with a new group called the 'Persian Gulf Resistance' published a photo of what appears to be an underwater drone with a shaped charge. The metadata suggests the photo was taken near Bandar Abbas. But that could be spoofed. The deepfakes are coming, people. We now have AI that can generate video of an admiral ordering an attack that never happened. The trust in visual evidence is eroding.
The UN evacuation is prudent. The Strait is a narrow corridor. If a frigate is hit, the debris could block shipping for weeks. But evacuating signals panic. The algorithm of fear propagates faster than any news broadcast. Oil futures will gap up at market open. Bitcoin, ironically, will also rise as capital flees traditional currencies. The decentralised web becomes a haven when centralised systems wobble.
We need to ask: is this a one-off or a new normal? The technology to attack shipping is cheap. A Rasberry Pi, a depth sensor, and some plastic explosive can be assembled for under $500. The defensive measures are orders of magnitude more expensive. My fear is that the 'Black Mirror' consequence is a fragmented global commons where every strait is a chokepoint gated by naval fleets. That is not a future I want to log into.
For now, the Star Horizon lists at 10 degrees, waiting for tugs. The crew's families wait for news. The algorithms wait for data. And the frigates wait for an order that could change everything.
