The planet is warming. India is burning more coal than ever. And yet, in New Delhi this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss energy deals that could reshape the subcontinent’s carbon trajectory. The timing is not coincidental. British firms, meanwhile, are positioning themselves for a slice of what could be the world’s largest clean energy market.
Let us look at the numbers. India currently generates about 70% of its electricity from coal. Its per capita emissions are low by global standards, but its population of 1.4 billion means total emissions are the third highest on Earth. The International Energy Agency projects Indian energy demand will grow more than any other country over the next two decades. Every megawatt of new coal capacity locks in decades of emissions. Every megawatt of solar or wind avoids them.
Enter Rubio. The US Secretary of State’s visit is ostensibly about strategic partnerships, but the real prize is energy. India has set a target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, a goal that requires tripling current renewable installations. That represents a massive infrastructure investment, estimated at $500 billion. The US wants a piece of that. So does the UK.
British firms, including BP and Shell, have already established clean energy ventures in India. BP has a joint venture with Reliance Industries for electric vehicle charging and fuel retail. Shell has invested in solar and wind projects. But the opportunity is far larger. India’s green hydrogen ambition alone could require $100 billion by 2030. British engineering firms, with expertise in offshore wind and grid integration, are well placed to supply technology and services.
The timing is urgent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it clear that global emissions must peak by 2025 to avoid catastrophic warming. India’s emissions are still rising, but the cost of renewable energy has fallen so dramatically that solar is now cheaper than coal in most parts of the country. The barrier is no longer economics. It is financing and policy certainty.
The Modi government has made progress. The Production Linked Incentive scheme for solar manufacturing has attracted billions in investment. But bureaucratic hurdles and land acquisition delays remain. The US and UK can help by offering technology transfer and low-cost capital. The proposed US-India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 partnership is a step in that direction.
For British firms, the calculus is clear. India offers a market growing at double digits, a government committed to energy transition, and a workforce skilled in engineering and digital technologies. The UK’s offshore wind expertise is particularly valuable. India has a coastline of 7,500 kilometres and excellent wind speeds, yet virtually no offshore wind capacity. British companies like Ørsted and SSE Renewables are already eyeing opportunities.
But there is a catch. India’s energy transition cannot happen without addressing the coal dependency of its state-owned utilities, which are often financially stressed. The social cost of coal phase-out, particularly in mining regions, must be managed. This is where international cooperation becomes critical. Just as the UK’s Just Transition Commission has guided its own coal phase-out, India needs similar support.
Rubio’s meeting with Modi is a signal. It says that energy is no longer just an environmental issue. It is a geopolitical one. The race for clean energy dominance is on, and India is the biggest prize. British firms, with their head start, must move quickly. The planet does not wait for diplomatic niceties. The data are clear. Every year of delay adds another gigatonne of CO2 to the atmosphere. Every year of delay makes the transition harder.
So here we are. A US secretary of state, an Indian prime minister, and a pack of British executives all circling the same opportunity. The world is watching. The numbers are unforgiving. The time to act is now.
