The global energy chessboard is shifting again. This morning in New Delhi, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a meeting that sources indicate is focused squarely on energy cooperation. The agenda is dense: liquefied natural gas, critical minerals, and nuclear technology. For India, the calculus is simple. It needs reliable, affordable energy to sustain its roaring growth. For the United States, it is a quiet counterweight to Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific and a chance to lock in demand for its shale exports.
India’s energy demand is projected to grow faster than any other major economy in the coming decade. Modi’s government has set ambitious targets for renewable capacity, but the baseload reality is undeniable. Coal will remain dominant for years. The partnership with the US therefore involves not just clean tech but also LNG supply, possibly with price stabilisation mechanisms that shield India from spot market volatility.
Rubio, a known hawk on China, will also likely raise the spectre of over-dependence on Beijing for solar panel and battery supply chains. The US is pushing ‘friend-shoring’, and India is a prime candidate. A joint statement on critical minerals processing and rare earth elements would not be surprising. This is not charity; it is geopolitics dressed in drill bits and solar wafers.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, another trade reorientation is underway. Britain, still adjusting to its post-Brexit reality, has been courting India for a bilateral trade deal. The UK’s Department for International Trade sees India as a vital pivot away from EU-centric commerce. But progress has been glacial: tariffs on Scotch whisky and automobiles remain sticking points. The Guardian reports that UK officials are watching the Rubio-Modi talks closely, hoping that broader energy deals might create momentum for a Free Trade Agreement framework by early 2025.
The UK’s energy posture itself is complicated. Having left the EU’s single market, it must now secure its own supply chains. The continent’s energy crisis of 2022 was a stark reminder. British ministers have dangled new nuclear partnerships with India as a carrot, but India’s liability laws have historically deterred foreign reactor builders. If this meeting yields a breakthrough on the civil nuclear front, it could reshape South Asian baseload generation for decades.
From a climate perspective, the optics are mixed. More gas means more methane and CO2 in the near term. India’s per capita emissions are still low, but aggregate numbers demand action. The hope is that these deals fund India’s green transition. Reality is stubborn. The planet warms incrementally. The urgency is calm. We must watch whether these agreements include carbon capture funding or if they are simply business as usual with a green veneer.
The data points are clear. Global energy investment is now at $2.8 trillion annually, but only 40 per cent goes to renewables. The rest is fossil fuel infrastructure that will operate for decades. Every molecule burned today locks in tomorrow’s temperature. This is the physics we live with.
For the audience watching this play out, it is easy to feel overwhelmed. But the signal is not just noise. If Rubio and Modi agree on a joint technology fund for grid-scale storage, that is a tangible step. If they only sign LNG contracts, that is a step in a different direction. We will know by sunday. The planet will record the temperature anyway.
