Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement to Nato allies this morning confirms what intelligence circles already knew: the United States is not withdrawing from the European theatre. The threat vector remains high, and Washington is keeping its forces on the board. Britain’s welcome of this renewed commitment is more than diplomatic courtesy; it is a recognition that the transatlantic military architecture must hold firm against a revanchist Russia and an increasingly assertive China.
The US maintains approximately 100,000 troops in Europe, a number that has fluctuated with operational demands but never dipped below critical mass. Logistics hubs in Germany, airbases in the UK, and prepositioned equipment in Norway form a chain of deterrence that would take years to replicate. Rubio’s message is a strategic pivot back to the core principle of Nato: collective defence under Article 5.
For London, this means the continued presence of US F-35s at RAF Lakenheath and the rotational deployment of armoured brigades to the Baltic states. The intelligence failure would be to assume this is a given. Any reduction in US force posture would immediately shift the balance of power, forcing European allies to scramble for capability gaps.
The hardware speaks: without US logistics, European armies lose their strategic mobility. Without US air cover, the Baltic air policing mission becomes a hollow gesture. Rubio’s reassurance is a chess move, but the game is far from over.
