A new wave of Russian forces is converging on the Donbas region, satellite imagery confirms, as Ukraine’s defensive positions show signs of strain after months of attrition. The build-up, which began in earnest last week, includes armoured columns, artillery batteries and logistics convoys moving towards the front lines near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Western intelligence assessments warn that Moscow may be preparing for a concerted push to capitalise on Ukrainian manpower shortages and degraded fortifications.
The timing is alarming. Ukrainian brigades have been rotated out for rest but replacements are arriving slower than needed, according to field reports. Ammunition stocks, while improved compared to last winter, remain constrained for critical calibres. The cumulative effect of relentless Russian assaults since autumn has created gaps in the defensive web that could be exploited.
This is not simply a replay of previous offensives. The Russian military has adapted its tactics, leaning more heavily on electronic warfare to disrupt Ukrainian drones and communications. Precision-guided munitions have also been used more effectively to degrade rear-area supply nodes. The operational picture that emerges is one where Ukraine’s ability to shift forces and coordinate responses has been degraded.
Yet the war is far from decided. Ukraine still holds formidable defensive positions, especially in urban areas, and its long-range strike capability has improved with Western weapons. The question is whether the political will in Kyiv and among allies can sustain the necessary support. Discussions in Brussels about a new aid package have stalled over nationalist posturing, threatening to delay deliveries of artillery shells and air defence systems.
The human cost is the most troubling variable. Front-line units report rising casualties and mounting psychological strain. Desertion rates, while not yet critical, have ticked upward. Civilians in Donbas cities brace for another round of destruction as Russian glide bombs and thermobaric rockets target residential blocks.
What happens in the next few weeks will shape the trajectory of the war. If Russia gains significant ground, it could embolden hardliners in Moscow to demand even greater territorial concessions. Conversely, a repulsed offensive would expose continued logistical and command weaknesses in the Russian military. For now, the world watches as tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides prepare for what may be the bloodiest chapter yet.
