The Kremlin is preparing a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine, with thousands of troops and heavy armour encircling a strategic Donbas city. British intelligence assessments suggest an assault could come within days.
The target is the city of Chasiv Yar, a railway hub that sits on high ground west of Bakhmut. Capturing it would give Russian forces a direct route towards Kramatorsk, the last major urban centre in Donetsk province still under Ukrainian control.
Western officials say the build-up has been under way for weeks. Troops and equipment have been moved from other parts of the 1,500 km front line. Satellite imagery shows new artillery positions and logistics depots.
One defence source described the situation as "serious but not desperate". Ukraine has been digging in for months, constructing fortifications and laying minefields. But its forces are stretched, exhausted and short of ammunition.
A senior military analyst told this paper: "The Russians have learned from their mistakes in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. They are now using massed artillery to flatten defensive positions before sending in small assault groups. The cost in human life is appalling, but they have the numbers to keep going."
The human toll is already grave. Aid workers in Chasiv Yar report that fewer than 1,000 civilians remain from a pre-war population of 12,000. They live without running water or electricity, sheltering in basements. Supplies of food and medicine are almost gone.
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the intelligence "underlines the urgency of providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself". The US aid package, blocked in Congress for months, is now seen as critical. Without it, Ukrainian forces will struggle to hold the line.
For the people of Chasiv Yar, the wait is almost over. The rumble of artillery draws closer each day. They know what is coming. They have seen it before. The only question is how many more towns will fall before the West decides to act.
