The fragility of West African governance has once again been exposed. Senegal’s president has dismissed his prime minister and former ally, terminating a months-long feud that threatened to paralyse the state apparatus. While the official narrative points to internal disagreements, the strategic timing suggests an orchestrated move to consolidate power ahead of an anticipated economic crisis. The dismissed PM, once a trusted lieutenant, now becomes a potential threat vector: disgruntled former officials with intimate knowledge of state vulnerabilities are a classic intelligence failure waiting to happen.
From a security perspective, this is not merely a domestic squabble. Senegal is a linchpin in the Sahel’s fragile stability, a key ally in counterterrorism operations against jihadist groups. Political instability in Dakar creates operational gaps that hostile actors will exploit. The military readiness of Senegalese forces may now be impacted as logistical chains and command structures face uncertainty. A power vacuum, however brief, is an invitation to adversaries.
Furthermore, this episode underscores a troubling pattern across the region: the erosion of institutional checks and balances. The sacking of a prime minister by executive decree, without parliamentary recourse, signals a pivot toward autocratic governance. This will likely strain relations with Western donors and international financial institutions, jeopardising aid packages critical for Senegal’s defence modernisation.
Cyber warfare implications are equally pressing. The feud between these former allies likely involved leaked communications or targeted disinformation campaigns. Such internal conflicts often expose state secrets to unintended audiences. Senegal’s signals intelligence networks may have been compromised in the power struggle, handing adversaries a tactical advantage.
The security forces must now manage the threat from within. The dismissed PM commands loyalty among segments of the bureaucracy and military. If he chooses to wield this influence from the outside, we could see a recalcitrant opposition that destabilises governance further. The president’s calculus appears to be a short-term shock to force a realignment before the economy worsens. But this is a gamble. In the chess game of regional power, every move carries a countermove.
Bottom line: This is not a story about politics. It is a story about security vulnerabilities. Strategic pivot or political coup, the consequences will be measured in threats to stability, military efficacy, and intelligence integrity. The next 72 hours are critical.
