The market debut of SpaceX has sent ripples through the City, but for one of its earliest employees, it is a bittersweet moment of what might have been. Jim Cantrell, who was effectively employee number one at the rocket company before its founding in 2002, watched the public offering with the air of a man who sold his lottery ticket too early. In an interview, Cantrell described himself as the ‘first employee’ and reflected on the valuation that has now soared to astronomical heights. For a financial editor who has seen many a founder’s regret, this is a classic tale of capital flight from the early days of risk to the later days of reward.
SpaceX’s public listing, long awaited by investors, finally arrived with a bang. The stock opened at a premium, pushing the company’s market capitalisation to levels that make even seasoned fund managers blink. But for Cantrell, who left the venture before its first successful launch, the windfall is academic. He is not alone. Countless early employees in the tech sector have watched their equity evaporate or been bought out before the big payday. It is the cruelty of venture capital: the very people who build the rockets often miss the flight.
The broader market reaction has been one of cautious optimism. Gilts barely moved, but volatility in the tech sector has picked up. Investors are pricing in the possibility that SpaceX will disrupt not just space travel but also satellite communications and defence contracting. The government, ever keen to trim its budget, will be watching closely. If SpaceX can reduce the cost of space access, it might just make a dent in the national debt, or at least provide a boost to the fiscal outlook. But I remain sceptical. Government spending in the space sector has historically been a black hole for capital, and the private sector may find the gravity of regulation too strong.
As for Cantrell, he says he has no regrets. But the numbers tell a different story. Had he held onto his stake, he would be sitting on a fortune large enough to buy a small country. Instead, he is left with the memory of being there at the beginning. It is a reminder that in the market, timing is everything. And sometimes, the best investment is the one you never sell.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will take note: a successful SpaceX listing could fuel a new wave of capital inflows into risky assets, potentially stoking inflation. But for now, the market is celebrating a British success story, even if the company is American. The City’s underwriters are licking their lips, and the secondary market will soon be flooded with retail investors chasing the next big thing. My advice: proceed with caution. The rocket may have launched, but the trajectory is never certain.
In the end, Cantrell’s story is a parable for our times. The bottom line is that in the world of finance, you either cash out or you hold on. And those who hold on sometimes end up with the moon. Or in this case, the stars.
