The City of London is turning its attention to a potential initial public offering from SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket company. But this is not a straightforward bet on a tech giant. It is a gamble on a man known for his volatility, on a sector that has historically burned investors, and on a vision that stretches to Mars.
For workers in the North of England, where manufacturing jobs have been hollowed out for decades, the SpaceX news might feel like a story from another planet. But the implications are closer to home. The London Stock Exchange, competing with New York for the listing, is weighing up the prestige of hosting the world's most valuable private company against the regulatory and reputational risks.
Musk's relationship with regulators has been fraught. His Twitter takeover was a chaotic spectacle that alarmed institutional investors. His recent comments on Tesla's earnings calls have occasionally veered into the erratic. For a company like SpaceX, which operates at the frontier of technology and relies on government contracts, stability is key.
Yet the prize is enormous. SpaceX is valued at around $150 billion in private markets. It dominates the launch industry with its reusable Falcon 9 rockets and its Starlink satellite internet network is a cash cow. A listing would be the biggest in years, a shot in the arm for any exchange that lands it.
The City's assessment is cautious. "SpaceX is not just a company; it's a bet on Musk's ability to deliver," one banker told me. "The governance structure would have to be robust. Investors need to know that the board can check the CEO."
For workers struggling with rising rents and stagnant wages, the debate may seem abstract. But the health of the City matters for pension funds, which invest in listed companies. A successful SpaceX listing could boost returns for millions of savers. A crash could hit them hard.
The union perspective is also relevant. SpaceX has faced labour complaints about working conditions and safety. As the company moves towards a public listing, scrutiny of its employment practices will intensify. The north knows the cost of deregulation: the gig economy has shifted risk from companies to workers. A publicly listed SpaceX would face pressure to show that its profits are not built on precarious labour.
Regional inequality is another lens. Space investment tends to cluster in the south-east of England, where the space agency and satellite firms are based. The north has pockets of aerospace expertise, but not the same scale. A SpaceX listing could widen the gap if the benefits flow to the already wealthy.
But there is also opportunity. The government's levelling up agenda could demand that any benefits of a London listing, like tax revenues and high-skilled jobs, are shared across the country. Unions will be watching.
For now, the City is playing it cool. The exact timeline for a SpaceX IPO is unclear. Musk has said it will not happen until the company has a sustainable revenue stream from its Starship rocket, which is still in development. The crash of a Starship prototype in Texas last month was a reminder of the risks.
When the listing does come, it will be a test of whether finance has learned from past mistakes: the dotcom bust, the financial crisis, the SPAC frenzy. Musk is a disruptor, but the stock market demands rules. The City must balance the allure of the new with the discipline of the old.
For the woman in Manchester worried about her mortgage, the SpaceX story is a distant echo. But if the City gets it wrong, the sound will reach her kitchen table.
