Elon Musk is preparing to take SpaceX public. This is not a drill. The listing, reportedly approved by UK regulators, could be the most audacious flotation since the heyday of the dot-com bubble. But for those of us who have spent two decades watching the City of London’s frothiest moments, this feels different. This is a bet on a technology that is as much about politics as it is about physics.
Let us start with the numbers. SpaceX is valued at over $150 billion in private markets. That is more than Boeing and Lockheed Martin combined. The company has a monopoly on reusable rockets, a lucrative Starlink satellite business, and a contract to ferry NASA astronauts. On paper, it is a cash-generating machine. But the paper is printed on very thin air.
The British angle is curious. Why London? The Financial Conduct Authority has been courting tech listings with the vigour of a desperate suitor. The Government wants to turn the Square Mile into a hub for deep-tech IPOs. But this is not ARM Holdings or Deliveroo. This is a company whose success depends on government contracts, regulatory favours, and the whims of a mercurial founder. Investors buying into the IPO are essentially buying a leveraged bet on Elon Musk staying focused and the global space race continuing to heat up.
And what about the market conditions? Gilt yields are rising, inflation is sticky, and the Bank of England is in a tightening cycle. The last time we saw a tech IPO of this magnitude in a rising rate environment was the disastrous flotation of Facebook in 2012. That eventually worked out, but only after a harrowing six-month slide. The London market, in particular, has a history of punishing over-hyped tech stocks. Just ask the bagholders of THG or Deliveroo.
But there is a twist. Musk has reportedly secured a “golden share” that gives him veto power over major decisions. This is the kind of corporate governance that would make the typical institutional investor run for the hills. Yet the demand for SpaceX shares in private markets suggests that normal rules do not apply. This is a cult stock, not a rational investment.
The British government’s approval may be a signal that they are willing to bend the rules for “strategic technology”. But let us be clear: this is a gamble. If Starlink’s subscriber growth slows, or if Starship suffers a catastrophic failure, the share price will implode. And unlike Tesla, which has a massive equity cushion and a fanatical retail base, SpaceX is still a closely held private company. The lack of public market discipline could lead to a rude awakening.
For the City, this is a test. Can London absorb a $150 billion space company without succumbing to speculative fever? Or will it be another chapter in the long history of British investors getting burned by American hype? I suspect the latter. The savvy money will buy the IPO, ride the pop, and sell before the lockup expires. The retail crowd, egged on by financial influencers, will be left holding the space debris.
In summary: SpaceX’s listing is a triumph of optimism over experience. It will generate headlines, enrich insiders, and likely end in tears for latecomers. But that is the nature of the beast. The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. And this particular rocket is very, very heavy.
