The hum of drones over St Petersburg this week has drowned out the usual fanfare of Russia’s annual economic forum, leaving delegates jittery and observers questioning the Kremlin’s narrative of stability. UK intelligence sources have confirmed they are monitoring the situation with ‘heightened alert’, as the attacks strike at the heart of President Putin’s showcase event. For ordinary Russians, the symbolism is stark: a city known for its imperial grandeur is now a battlefield, and the economy – already battered by sanctions – faces fresh uncertainty.
The drone strikes, which targeted infrastructure in and around the former imperial capital, have disrupted what was meant to be a triumphant display of Russia’s resilience. The St Petersburg International Economic Forum, or SPIEF, is the Kremlin’s annual pitch to investors and allies, a chance to project an image of self-sufficiency and growth. Instead, this year’s gathering has been overshadowed by the whine of UAVs and the thud of air defences. Western analysts say the attacks, claimed by Ukrainian forces, are a deliberate message: no corner of Russia is safe from the war.
For the workers and families of St Petersburg, the immediate impact is a mix of fear and defiance. Markets and cafes remained open, but a palpable tension hung in the air. ‘We are used to this now, but it still makes you jump,’ said a shopkeeper on Nevsky Prospekt, who asked not to be named. ‘The forum is supposed to show we are strong, but the drones show we are weak.’ Her comment echoes a growing sentiment: that the war is seeping into everyday life, eroding the sense of normalcy that the Kremlin tries to maintain.
UK intelligence assessments, shared with allies, have concluded that the attacks are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to degrade Russian logistics and morale. A Whitehall source told this paper that the strikes ‘demonstrate a capability and intent to hit strategic targets deep inside Russian territory’, a development that could force the Kremlin to divert resources from the front lines. For British officials, the concern is that Putin may respond with an escalation of his own, potentially targeting Ukrainian infrastructure or even Nato supply chains. ‘We are in a dangerous phase,’ the source added.
Economically, the timing could not be worse for the Kremlin. SPIEF was meant to showcase new trade deals with China, India and other non-Western partners. But the drone attacks have cast a long shadow. Foreign delegates were seen cancelling appearances, and the usual buzz of deal-making was muted. Analysts say the attacks undermine the message of a ‘fortress Russia’ economy that can weather sanctions. ‘If you can’t guarantee security for a major economic event, how can you guarantee it for long-term investment?’ asked Maria Lipman, a political commentator based in Moscow.
On the ground in St Petersburg, the response has been a mixture of official bravado and practical disruption. The city’s governor promised that the forum would go ahead ‘without hindrance’, but social media was filled with videos of residents being instructed to stay indoors and roads being closed. The contrast with the usual pomp of SPIEF – the champagne receptions, the flashy exhibitions – was stark. For the average Russian, the forum is a distant affair; the drones bring the war home in a visceral way.
Yet, for all the drama, the economic forum is unlikely to shift Russia’s fundamental trajectory. The war in Ukraine continues to drain resources, and the West’s sanctions are biting. But the attacks on St Petersburg add a psychological blow. They remind Russians that their leaders’ promises of security are hollow. And for UK intelligence, they are a warning that the conflict is spreading, with implications that go far beyond the battlefield.
As the forum limps on, the drones may be silent, but their message lingers. This is not the Russia of Putin’s dreams: a self-sufficient power, immune to external shocks. It is a country at war, where even a grand economic gathering can be grounded by the roar of an engine in the night.
