A threat vector of the highest order has just been neutralised, or so the former president would have you believe. Donald Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively ‘reopened’ and that a new Iran deal is ‘largely negotiated’ represents a strategic pivot of breathtaking naivety. From an intelligence perspective, this is not a diplomatic breakthrough. This is a unilateral disarmament of our primary coercive lever in the Persian Gulf.
Let us examine the hardware. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. For years, the U.S. 5th Fleet has maintained a layered denial posture: Carrier Strike Groups, mine counter-measures, and continuous MQ-9 overwatch. The Iranian playbook exploits this geography with swarming fast-attack craft, anti-ship cruise missiles, and naval mines. To declare the strait ‘open’ without verified, verifiable, and enforceable concessions is to hand Tehran a strategic victory without firing a shot.
The claim that negotiations are ‘largely’ complete reeks of intelligence failure. We have seen this pattern before: a political timeline overriding military reality. In 2018, the administration withdrew from the JCPOA precisely because it failed to address ballistic missile development and regional proxies. Now, without any public evidence of Iran dismantling its Fordow enrichment facility or halting support for Houthi rebels in Yemen, we are to trust that a ‘largely negotiated’ deal is credible.
Logistics are the lifeblood of both commerce and conflict. If the strait is truly open, the Navy can redeploy assets to the South China Sea or Eastern Europe. But if this is a feint, if Trump is declaring victory to score political points, then we have just signalled to every hostile state actor that our deterrent threats are empty. The IRGC navy has not been observed standing down. Satellite imagery still shows an increased presence of fast-attack craft near Bandar Abbas.
Consider the strategic pivot: By decoupling the reopening of the strait from concrete Iranian compliance, the administration has removed the primary economic pressure point. Sanctions relief should be a scalpel, not a firehose. If oil tankers are now free to transit without inspection, we lose the ability to interdict arms shipments to Hezbollah or intercept illicit Iranian financing.
My assessment is cold and clear: This is a unilateral concession dressed as a negotiation. Without a detailed, time-stamped framework for inspections, enrichment limits, and missile constraints, the claim of a ‘largely negotiated’ deal is an intelligence reporting gap of the highest order. The military readiness required to reimpose a blockade if talks break down is now compromised. We have painted ourselves into a strategic cul-de-sac where the only way out is either a de facto surrender or an escalatory military response nobody wants.
The words of an admiral come to mind: In the Strait of Hormuz, you do not negotiate with the toll booth keeper. You establish your right of passage, or you do not pass. Today, it seems the toll has been paid in advance, the receipt is missing, and the gate is open without verification. The next hostile actor to test our resolve will have learned a dangerous lesson.
