Switzerland has delivered a clear verdict. Its electorate, in a Sunday referendum, voted down a proposed cap of 10 million residents. The result, a comfortable 57% against, has been noted with quiet satisfaction in Downing Street. For Labour, it provides a convenient cudgel against the Tory right's obsession with net zero migration.
The Swiss model is one of managed openness. Work permits linked to labour market needs. No arbitrary numbers. It is the approach Keir Starmer's team has been quietly floating for months. “The Swiss have shown that you can have public trust without tearing up the place,” a senior No. 10 source told me.
The proposal, from the right-wing Swiss People's Party, was a direct challenge to the country's tradition of free movement with the EU. It would have required renegotiation of bilateral treaties. The Swiss government warned of economic damage. The voters listened.
For the UK, the timing is exquisite. The Rwanda scheme is dead. Legal migration, while down, is still over 600,000 a year. The Tory leadership contest is a festival of performative cruelty on immigration. Robert Jenrick floated caps. Kemi Badenoch talked about “net zero migration”. The Swiss result pours cold water on that fantasy.
“You cannot run a modern economy on a slogan,” a Labour strategist told me. “The Tories are in a contest to be most extreme. The Swiss have shown that the centre holds.” The applause from the Home Office was barely disguised. A spokesperson said the UK “welcomes the considered approach of the Swiss electorate”.
But do not mistake this for a blank cheque. The Swiss result is not a pro-migration vote. It is a vote against an arbitrary ceiling that would have hurt small businesses and the healthcare system. Polling shows Swiss voters remain concerned about integration and housing. Sound familiar?
Starmer’s team has been studying the Swiss model for months. A Whitehall source confirmed that Home Office officials have held “informal exchanges” with their Swiss counterparts. The goal is a system where the government sets an annual range for work visas, but not a rigid cap. It would be tied to skills shortages and economic data. The Treasury likes it. The unions are not hostile. The CBI is enthusiastic.
The danger for Labour is that the public does not differentiate between a cap and a target. The Tories will scream “open borders” regardless. The Swiss referendum offers a shield. “If Switzerland can manage a population of 9 million with a decent immigration system, why can't we?” the No. 10 source asked.
The political calculation is clear. The Tories are in a death spiral on immigration. They promised to bring numbers down, failed, and now chase ever more extreme solutions. Labour can present itself as the sensible alternative. A system that works. No chaos. No cap.
But the devil is in the detail. The Swiss system relies on a points-based system for non-EU workers, plus free movement for EU nationals. The UK has the points base. EU free movement is gone. A new regime would need to balance control with flexibility. Could be done. But it requires political nerve.
For now, Starmer can smile. The Swiss have given him a model and a mandate. The Tories are left proposing what the Swiss just rejected. It is a good place to be.
