Swiss voters are set to decide on a controversial proposal that would cap the nation's population at 10 million, a move that could fundamentally reshape immigration policy and the country's labour market. The initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), aims to address concerns over overcrowding, housing shortages, and pressure on public services. However, critics warn it could cripple industries reliant on foreign workers and exacerbate the cost of living crisis.
The proposal, which goes to a referendum on 30 November, would amend the constitution to mandate that the government adjust immigration quotas once the population hits the 10 million threshold. Currently, Switzerland's population stands at 8.7 million, with net migration averaging around 50,000 per year. Proponents argue that unchecked growth is driving up rents and straining infrastructure, particularly in urban centres like Zurich and Geneva.
But for the Swiss economy, the implications are stark. The country's manufacturing, construction, and healthcare sectors depend heavily on cross-border workers and foreign talent. Johannes Schneider, a Zurich-based economist, told the Guardian: "A hard cap would be a sledgehammer. We already have skills shortages. This would push up wages in some sectors, but also lead to higher prices and reduced competitiveness." The Swiss Business Federation has urged voters to reject the plan, calling it "economic self-harm."
Meanwhile, labour unions are divided. The Swiss Trade Union Federation has not taken a formal stance, but local unions have expressed concern about wage stagnation and exploitation of migrant workers. "We need fair wages and conditions for all workers, not a race to the bottom," said Maria Fuchs, a union organiser in Basel. "But a population cap won't solve the housing crisis. It just scapegoats migrants."
For ordinary Swiss families, the cost of living is already biting. In Bern, teacher Anna Meier (42) said: "I can barely afford my rent. But I also see how my employer struggles to find staff. This is a complex problem, not a simple number." The referendum has exposed deep regional divides: rural areas, which have seen less immigration, largely support the cap, while urban centres oppose it.
The vote comes amid a broader European backlash against immigration. Switzerland has one of the highest proportions of foreign-born residents in Europe, at 30%. The outcome will be watched closely by other nations grappling with similar pressures. If passed, the government would have to renegotiate bilateral agreements with the EU, which guarantee free movement. Brussels has already warned that such a move would violate treaty obligations.
As the campaign heats up, both sides are pouring millions into advertising. The SVP's posters depict a Swiss cross overwhelmed by a wave of people. In contrast, opposition groups highlight the human cost: families separated, skilled workers barred, and the economy stifled.
For now, the Swiss people hold the balance. And their decision will reverberate far beyond the Alps.
