In a move that has sent shivers down the collective spine of every hedge fund manager and petrolhead from Woking to Walla Walla, the Islamic Republic of Iran has announced the immediate closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The timing, naturally, is impeccable: just as US and Iranian diplomats settle into a luxurious Swiss hotel to discuss, presumably, how to best avoid armageddon while nibbling on fondue. Because nothing says 'good faith negotiations' like taking the world's most vital energy artery hostage.
The strait, a shimmering ribbon of geopolitical tension through which flows 20% of the world's oil, is now as accessible as a politician's promise. Initial reports suggest that this is not a drill, although it might be a drill for the tanker crews now forced to contemplate alternative routes or, god forbid, a career change. The price of crude has already performed a vertical take-off, leaving the global economy with the distinct sensation of having its trousers pulled down in public.
So, as the talking heads in Geneva prepare to exchange pleasantries and stern looks, the rest of us are left to wonder: is this a negotiating tactic or the first act of a very expensive opera? Either way, the bar at the airport lounge is sure to be busy.
