The planet is heating faster than our models predicted. That is not hyperbole. It is the sobering conclusion drawn from a cascade of climate data released this week by the Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation. Global average temperatures have not merely risen. They have shattered previous records by a margin that has left researchers scrambling for language adequate to describe the shift.
Consider this. The 12-month period ending February 2025 was the hottest ever recorded, surpassing the pre-industrial baseline by 1.5 degrees Celsius. That 1.5-degree figure, long the aspirational guardrail of the Paris Agreement, is no longer a future threat. We are living in it. Every month for the past 11 months has set a new monthly high. This is not a statistical fluctuation. This is a structural shift in the energy balance of the Earth.
Dr. Helena Vance, Science & Climate Correspondent. I have spent my career studying the thermodynamics of planetary systems. This report carries the weight of that training. What we are witnessing is the atmosphere behaving like a heated pressure cooker with the safety valve welded shut. The oceans, which have absorbed more than 90 percent of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions, are now warming at depths previously thought immune. The North Atlantic, a key regulator of European climate, is experiencing sea surface temperatures up to 5 degrees Celsius above average. Coral bleaching events, once decadal, are now annual.
“This is not a slow creep,” said Professor James Hansen, the climatologist who first testified to the U.S. Congress about global warming in 1988. “This is an acceleration. The physics is unforgiving.”
What has changed? The answer lies partly in the reduction of aerosol pollution. For decades, industrial aerosols — tiny particles from burning coal and oil — acted as a dimmer switch, reflecting sunlight back into space and masking a fraction of the warming. Cleaner air policies, while vital for human health, have removed that shield. The result is that the full force of accumulated greenhouse gases is now hitting the planet unimpeded.
Add to this the feedback loops that are beginning to spin out of control. Arctic sea ice, the polar bear’s habitat and a critical reflector of solar energy, is at its lowest winter extent on record. Darker ocean water absorbs more heat, melting more ice, in a vicious circle that amplifies warming. The Amazon rainforest, once a net carbon sink, is now a net emitter due to deforestation and drought. The permafrost of Siberia, containing twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, is thawing and releasing methane, a greenhouse gas at least 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
What does this mean for the British public? The Met Office has updated its climate projections to include a potential 4-degree Celsius rise by 2100 if emissions continue unabated. This summer, heatwaves of 40 degrees Celsius or more are no longer a rare event but a seasonal probability. The winter floods that have devastated communities from Yorkshire to the Scottish borders will increase in frequency and intensity. Crop yields for staple grains like wheat and barley are projected to decline by 20 percent within a decade. The insurance industry is already recalibrating risk models. Homeowners in flood-prone areas may find their policies unaffordable.
The solutions remain the same: a rapid, complete transition away from fossil fuels. Every fraction of a degree prevented now reduces the severity of what is coming. The technology exists: solar, wind, nuclear, storage. What is lacking is the political will to deploy it at wartime speed. The United Kingdom, once a global leader on climate, has stalled. The current government's decision to grant new oil and gas licences in the North Sea is a catastrophic miscalculation. It is like trying to extinguish a house fire by pouring petrol on the flames.
There is no single headline that captures the totality of this crisis. But if you take one thing from this report, make it this: the climate system is not linear. It does not respond gradually to gradual forcing. It jumps. We have just jumped. The question is whether we are brave enough to jump together toward a liveable future, or whether we will cling to the wreckage of a fossil-fueled past as the waters rise.
This is Dr. Helena Vance, signing off from a warming world.
