The streets of Pretoria filled with a sea of angry faces on Tuesday. Tens of thousands of South Africans marched on government buildings. Their message was clear and brutal: send the foreigners home. British diplomats in the region are now issuing stark warnings. They fear a regional domino effect. The situation is volatile. And it is not going away.
This is not a fringe movement. The organisers claim support from major opposition parties and trade unions. The chant on the ground is about jobs, crime, and scarce resources. But the undertone is darker. It is a raw populist backlash against a perceived migrant wave from fellow African states like Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Somalia. South Africa has long been a magnet. Now the magnet is repelling.
I spoke to a source inside the Foreign Office this evening. They described the atmosphere in High Commission as “jittery.” The official line is a call for calm and restraint. But the private worry is different. They fear a repeat of the 2008 xenophobic pogroms. Dozens died then. The regional security architecture is weaker now. That is the kernel of the anxiety.
The march itself was largely peaceful. But there are always the fringes. Reports of intimidation of foreign-owned shops in the townships are filtering through. The police are stretched. The political will to crack down is questionable. President Ramaphosa is weak. His coalition partners need the populist vote. So the default is to say little and hope it blows over. It won’t.
The diplomatic cables I have seen paint a grim picture. The key worry is that this boils over into neighbouring countries. Zimbabwe is already on its knees. Mozambique is battling an insurgency. A wave of returning migrants could destabilise fragile states. That is the nightmare scenario for London. A humanitarian crisis with no easy off-ramp.
What does Number 10 do? Leaning on Pretoria is the obvious move. But Ramaphosa has little political capital to spend. The Treasury here is haemorrhaging cash for aid. There is no appetite for another expensive intervention. So the game becomes about mitigation. Quiet diplomacy. Contingency planning. And hoping the anger dissipates.
Downing Street statements so far have been generic condemnations of violence. That is the public face. Behind the scenes, the real work is monitoring and mapping. They are tracking which South African MPs are stoking the fire. They are watching the Twitter feeds of the key agitators. This is a crisis in slow motion. But it is moving.
The bigger question is what this says about the global mood. Anti-migrant sentiment is not unique to the UK or Europe. It is a virus that has reached every continent. South Africa is just the latest flashpoint. And the Tories claim to understand the politics of this. They should be careful what they wish for. The beast they feed at home is equally hungry abroad.
