A decade after the referendum, the economic landscape of Brexit is finally coming into focus. The latest trade figures show a surprising twist: the UK is outperforming the European Union in services trade. Exports of financial, legal and consulting services have grown by 8% since 2019, while the EU’s own services trade has stagnated.
This is a vindication for those who argued that Brexit would allow Britain to pivot towards faster-growing global markets. Yet as I walk through the streets of London’s Canary Wharf, the gleaming towers of banks and law firms seem a world away from the boarded-up shops in former industrial towns. The truth is that the benefits of this services boom are not being felt on the high street.
For the man in the street, the economic impact is more tangible: higher food prices, labour shortages in hospitality and healthcare, and a lingering sense that Britain has become a poorer, more insular place. The services trade figures are a reminder that the dividends of Brexit are concentrated in the hands of a few. Meanwhile, the cultural shift is palpable.
German cars are still everywhere, but the young British professionals who once flocked to Berlin or Barcelona now face visa hurdles. The freedom of movement is replaced by a paperwork-heavy bureaucracy. The human cost is borne by those who voted Leave hoping for a rebalancing of the economy, only to see the rich get richer while their local pubs close.
So yes, the services trade data is good news for the City. But for the nation’s social fabric, the jury is still out. Brexit’s legacy will be a tale of two Britains: one global and thriving, the other local and struggling.
