Whitehall is running scared. The tipping virus has crossed the Atlantic. British hospitality is bracing for infection.
It started in Soho. A QR code menu with a built-in 20% service charge. Then a taxi app that guilt-trips you into a tip before you've even sat down. Now the Treasury is panicking. Ministers are getting briefings. Leaked memos warn of a 'US-style gratuity culture' taking hold.
Number 10's polling guru is watching the numbers. Focus groups are showing a shift. Younger voters, the ones addicted to Uber and Deliveroo, they're used to it. They think a 15% tip is just part of the price. The older demographic, the ones who remember when a pint cost two quid, they're furious.
'It's a stealth tax,' a senior Tory backbencher told me over a drink in the Strangers' Bar. 'Labour will have a field day. They'll call it a cost of living crisis within a cost of living crisis.'
The Department for Business and Trade is caught in the crossfire. The minister, a quiet man from the Midlands, is getting contradictory advice. Business lobbyists say tips boost staff morale and wages. Consumer groups say it's a con, a way for employers to shift wage costs onto customers.
But here's the thing. The real fear in Downing Street is the optics. A prime minister trying to sell 'levelling up' while a London waiter demands a 20% surcharge for pouring tap water. It's a gift to the opposition.
The tipping fight is splitting the party. The free-marketeers say let the market decide. If people want to tip, fine. The social conservatives say it's un-British. They have a point. British culture is built on a different social contract. Service is included. You pay the sticker price. The tip is a bonus, not an entitlement.
Today's announcement from the Department for Culture, Media and Sport was telling. A new 'fair tips' code of practice. Voluntary. Toothless. It's a fudge. An attempt to kick the can down the road.
But the can has a hole. The American tipping model is aggressive. It's designed to make you feel cheap if you don't comply. And it's working. I saw it in a restaurant last week. A couple left a 10% tip. The waiter chased them out. 'Is everything okay with the service?' A public shaming.
This is the danger. The Taming of the Shrew becomes A Midsummer Night's Nightmare. The tip becomes an obligation, a test of your moral worth.
Westminster is watching the US election nervously. The tipping economy is embedded there. But it's also causing resentment. There's a growing movement for 'inclusive pricing'. A total price, all included. Some states are moving to ban hidden fees.
The British government is hoping it goes away. But the trends are against it. The gig economy, contactless payments, the rise of the 'service charge' as default. It's a creeping tide.
The Big Question for Number 10: Do they legislate before the next election? Or gamble that the public will accept it? The polling is clear: voters hate it. But they hate the current government more. This could be another wound that festers.
Tonight, in the quiet corridors of the Treasury, officials are crunching the numbers. Will a compulsory service charge reduce the minimum wage burden? Could it be a hidden tax cut for business? The backroom boys are searching for a solution.
But the clock is ticking. The tipping genie is out of the bottle. And she doesn't want a tip. She wants the whole damn bottle.
