Here we are again, ladies and gentlemen, staring into the abyss of another ‘decisive phase’ in Ukraine. The Russian bear is massing its forces for an assault on a Donbas city, while UK intelligence solemnly warns of what we already know: this is the critical moment. But spare me the breathless headlines. Every phase of this war has been declared ‘decisive’ by pundits who cannot see beyond the present. The truth is far more uncomfortable, for it speaks not merely of a military campaign but of a civilisational reckoning.
Consider the parallels. The West, in its current iteration, resembles nothing so much as the late Roman Empire: decadent, divided, and obsessed with comfort, while the barbarians—or in this case, a revanchist Moscow—gather at the gates. Our leaders speak of ‘supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes’, but they cannot even agree on the definition of victory. Is it the restoration of 1991 borders? A neutral Ukraine? A drawn-out stalemate that bleeds Russia white? No one knows, because no one has the courage to articulate a strategy beyond platitudes.
Meanwhile, the Russian machine grinds forward with its characteristic bluntness. The Donbas offensive is not a stroke of genius; it is the brute force of a commander who knows his window of opportunity is closing. The West’s sanctions are biting, but slowly. Russia’s economy is on a war footing, while ours potters along with interest rate hikes and energy price caps. We are fighting a 19th-century war with 21st-century technology and a 21st-century reluctance to sacrifice. It will not end well.
The real question is not whether Ukraine can hold the Donbas cities. It is whether the West can muster the political will to see this through. I am not optimistic. Look at the protests in Berlin, the political paralysis in Washington, the energy crisis in London. We are a civilisation that has lost its nerve. We prefer to outsource our fighting to Ukrainians while we argue about gender pronouns and net-zero targets. Rome fell because it forgot what made it great. So will we.
But let us not be entirely gloomy. There is a path, though it requires a honesty we seldom muster. First, admit that this is a war of attrition, not manoeuvre. Then, act accordingly: ramp up industrial production of shells and drones as if it were 1942. Second, drop the pretence of ‘escalation management’. Russia is already escalating; our caution is a gift to the Kremlin. Third, prepare the public for sacrifice—higher taxes, conscription of resources, and a grim decade ahead. If we cannot do this, we deserve the outcome.
The Donbas offensive will likely succeed tactically. Russia will take another city, another heap of ruins. But strategically, it changes little. The real battle is in the minds of Western voters and the corridors of Brussels. If we have the nerve to see this through, we may yet salvage something. If not, we will be remembered as the generation that fiddled while Kyiv burned. The choice, as always, is ours.