It was meant to be a celebration of resilience. The St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s answer to Davos, was a stage for President Putin to trumpet the success of a wartime economy. But for the delegates sipping champagne in the gilded halls, the buzz was not from the caviar. It came from the air raid sirens and the distant thunder of drone attacks. Just hours earlier, a Ukrainian drone strike had hit a residential building in the city. No one died, but the symbolism was unmistakable. The war has come home, and not even the oligarchs can escape the rumble.
This is the new reality of Russia’s high society. The forum’s official theme was ‘multipolarity’ and ‘future markets’. Yet in the corridors, the real talk was of safety and survival. Businessmen who once jetted between London and Moscow now find themselves confined to a shrinking circle of allies. The British sanctions strategy, which has targeted everyone from energy barons to the wives of ministers, is biting. I spoke to a former Russian banker who now lives in Tbilisi. He told me: ‘The party is over. The only question is whether you can keep your money and your passport.’
On the streets of St Petersburg, the mood is more complex. The city is a showcase of imperial grandeur, but the people paying the bills are feeling the pinch. A shopkeeper near the Mariinsky Theatre told me that prices for imported goods have doubled. ‘We see the limousines,’ she said, ‘but we also see the empty shelves.’ The disconnect between the elite and the ordinary is a class dynamic that Russia’s leaders have long exploited. Now, it threatens to become a fissure.
What does this mean for the British strategy? The aim is to make the cost of war unbearable for Russia’s elite. And it seems to be working. The drone attacks may be kinetically small, but their psychological impact is huge. They remind everyone that the Kremlin’s narrative of invulnerability is a lie. The cultural shift is subtle but real. At previous forums, the talk was of new pipelines and luxury brands. This year, it is about how to move money to Dubai, and which bodyguard firms are hiring.
The human cost is not just in Ukrainian villages. It is in the strained faces of Russian executives, the hollow eyes of conscripts, and the quiet desperation of the middle class. The sanctions are a blunt instrument, but they are reshaping the psychology of a nation. For the West, the question is whether this pressure can translate into a change in policy. For Russia, it is whether the elite will ever turn on their leader.
As I watched the final keynote, the applause was polite but thin. Outside, the drones were gone, but the unease remained. This forum was a shadow of its former self. And that, for the Kremlin, is the most dangerous trend of all.
