The cost of filling up the car. The price of a loaf. The bill for heating the home. These are the quiet anxieties that keep working families awake at night. And now, a new, terrifying uncertainty has been thrown into the mix: the spectre of conflict in the Gulf, triggered by a US missile strike on an oil tanker that threatens to choke the world's arteries of trade.
Foreign Office sources today confirmed the government is braced for an escalation with Iran after the attack on the vessel, a stark reminder that the 'real economy' is always the first casualty of war. The tanker, reportedly carrying Iranian crude, was hit by US ordnance in what Washington described as a response to continued attacks on commercial shipping. But for the man or woman on the street in Burnley or Grimsby, the causes matter less than the consequences.
"This is a serious development," a Whitehall source told me, refusing to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation. "We are in contact with our allies and urging de-escalation at every step. The impact on prices could be severe."
Severe is an understatement. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint. A third of all seaborne crude passes through it. Any disruption sends shockwaves through global markets. We have seen this before. In 2019, a similar incident saw oil prices spike 15 per cent in a day. Fuel costs hit the poorest hardest, as the cost of moving food, medicine and goods is passed directly to the till.
The UK government, already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis that has seen real wages stagnate and union action spread like wildfire, now faces a new front. Pensions will worry about the value of their savings. The not-so-well-off, those living on universal credit or minimum wage, will worry about whether they can afford to get to work.
"It is the same old story," Sarah Jones, a shopkeeper in Rotherham, told me as she stacked shelves. "Every time there is a rumble in the Middle East, we pay. It is not the generals or the bankers. It is us. My electricity bill has doubled in two years. I can't afford another price rise."
The Transport and General Workers' Union (TGWU) has already issued a statement calling for an emergency summit on fuel security. "Working people cannot be the shock absorbers for the adventures of the powerful," a spokesperson said. "We need a strategic fuel reserve and price controls, not more military action."
But the reality is grimmer. The US, our closest ally, has made its move. The UK, tied by treaties and military cooperation, is bound to a path that may lead away from the kitchen table concerns of its citizens. The government is now working frantically to ensure the insurance of commercial shipping in the region, and diplomatic channels remain open. But the damage may already be done.
Petrol prices have already crept up by nearly 10p a litre in the last week. The Office for National Statistics is expected to report another cut in predicted economic growth. Meanwhile, the chancellor is considering a 'war risk premium' for businesses that operate in the region.
This is the real economy. Not spreadsheets, but survival. The government must act to protect the poorest from the fallout. Income support must rise. Price caps, similar to those on energy, must be considered for fuel. If the spectre of war is allowed to become a tax on the poor, the social contract itself is at risk.
The sound of the shopkeeper's till and the rumble of the tanker are the same. They both dictate our lives. And we are at their mercy.
