So here we are again. The White House, in its infinite wisdom, has issued a statement that could have been written on a parchment scroll in the court of Emperor Honorius. ‘We will not abandon our Asian allies,’ it declares, before promptly demanding that those same allies pay more for their own defence. It is a breathtaking act of cognitive dissonance, a diplomatic two-step that would make a Victorian headmaster proud.
Let us strip away the diplomatic niceties. What we are witnessing is the slow, agonising death of the post-war alliance system. The United States, like Rome before it, has overextended its commitments across three continents. Its treasury bleeds. Its attention span flickers between the South China Sea, the Ukrainian steppe, and the Gaza Strip. And now, with the weary sigh of a shopkeeper closing up for the night, it tells its Asian partners: ‘You must carry your own weight.’
But the demand itself is not the story. The story is the language. ‘Will not abandon’ is a curious phrase. It suggests that abandonment was ever on the table. It suggests that the alliance is a favour, not a mutual arrangement. It suggests that the United States is doing Asia a kindness by staying, and that kindness comes with a receipt.
Historians will note the parallels to the late Roman Empire, when the legions were withdrawn from Britain and the Rhine frontier, not because Rome had lost interest, but because it could no longer afford the luxury of defending every province. The Britons were told to look to their own defences. The result was chaos, invasion, and a dark age. Will Asia fare better? Perhaps. But the lesson of history is that when a great power begins to haggle over the cost of its alliances, those alliances are already broken.
The irony, of course, is that the demand for higher defence spending comes at a time when Asia is already arming itself at a frantic pace. Japan, South Korea, Australia, even Taiwan have all increased their defence budgets. They are preparing for a world without the American umbrella. They are reading the same history books we are. They see the pattern: the empire that demands tribute is the empire that is about to leave.
And yet the White House insists on the language of permanence. ‘We will not abandon.’ It is the same language used by the British Empire in the 1930s when it assured Singapore and Hong Kong of its unwavering commitment. We all know how that ended. The Fall of Singapore in 1942 was the moment the British Empire’s bluff was called. The Americans, standing in the ashes of that betrayal, promised it would never happen again. And now they are repeating the same mistake.
What is truly decaying here is not the military capacity of the United States, but its intellectual confidence. The ability to see an alliance as a partnership, not a transaction. The ability to lead without constantly counting the cost. This is the mark of a civilisation in decline: the shift from imperial duty to managerial accounting. The Romans had their ‘revenue commissions’ in the fourth century. We have the White House press secretary.
Make no mistake: the allies will pay. They have no choice. But they will pay with resentment. They will pay with a growing sense that the American guarantee is a rental agreement, not a marriage. And when the next crisis erupts, be it in the Taiwan Strait or the Korean Peninsula, they will remember this moment. They will remember that the United States stayed only because the price was right.
The death of an alliance is never a single event. It is a thousand small cuts, a thousand press conferences, a thousand insistent demands. And with each one, the empire shrinks a little more. The question is not whether the United States will abandon Asia. The question is whether Asia will abandon the United States first.
In the end, this is not about defence spending. It is about the meaning of loyalty in a world where history has become a cautionary tale. The White House can insist all it likes. The facts on the ground are what they are. And the facts are these: the empire is tired, the treasury is strained, and the allies are watching. Always watching.
