So it has finally happened. The ink is dry on a £18bn investment pact between London and Tokyo, and the jubilant chorus from the Brexiteer press is already drowning out any hint of dissent. Let us not be churlish: this is a genuinely significant moment, a rare piece of good news in an age of national decline and intellectual torpor. But before we pop the champagne, let us examine what this deal actually signifies, beyond the headline sum and the self-congratulatory speeches.
The numbers are, on the face of it, staggering. £18bn in Japanese capital flowing into British infrastructure, green technology, and financial services. Nissan, Honda, SoftBank – the usual suspects – are deepening their commitment to these shores. The government presents it as a triumph of post-Brexit sovereignty: we are no longer tied to the sclerotic EU, waiting for Brussels to approve our trade deals. We can now strike out on our own, forging alliances with dynamic Asian economies. There is a kernel of truth here. The UK’s ability to negotiate independently with Japan – a fellow island nation with a proud maritime history – is a strategic prize. It evokes the spirit of the 1902 Anglo-Japanese Alliance, when we recognised a kindred spirit in the East.
Yet, we must beware the mirage of sovereignty. A trade deal is not a substitute for industrial strategy. Japan is not investing out of charity or admiration for Boris Johnson’s successors. They invest because they see Britain as a stable, English-speaking platform with a flexible labour market and a legal system they trust. That is all well and good, but it also makes us a client state of Tokyo’s corporate giants, just as we once were to Detroit and now to Silicon Valley. The £18bn will be Japanese-owned assets, Japanese-controlled jobs, Japanese-directed profits. Sovereignty in trade is meaningless if we have surrendered sovereignty over our own productive base.
Consider the historical parallels. In the late Victorian era, Britain was the world’s workshop, exporting capital and goods to every corner of the globe. Today, we import capital and export debt. The Japan deal is a reminder that we are now a net importer of investment, reliant on the largesse of others. The Victorians would have been aghast. They built empires; we sell off the family silver.
And what of the intellectual climate that accompanies this deal? The pundits are already hailing it as proof that ‘Global Britain’ is more than a slogan. But Global Britain has been a slogan for seven years now, with precious little to show for it. Trade deals with Australia and New Zealand were heralded as breakthroughs, yet their actual economic impact has been negligible. The Japan deal is larger, but it is also a continuation of existing trends: Japanese investment in the UK has been growing for decades, EU membership or no. The real test will be whether this investment creates genuinely new industries, or merely props up our declining manufacturing sector with a veneer of internationalism.
I fear we are mistaking the appearance of activity for genuine renewal. There is a decadence in our political culture that celebrates a deal as an end in itself, rather than asking what it builds for the future. The Victorians built railways, factories, and institutions that lasted a century. We build shareholder value and quarterly reports. When the Japanese eventually decide that labour is cheaper in Vietnam, or that our regulatory environment is no longer as friendly, the £18bn will vanish as quickly as it arrived.
None of this is to say we should reject the deal. Far from it: in a world of rising protectionism and geopolitical blocs, any strengthening of ties with democratic allies is welcome. But let us not kid ourselves that this is a restoration of national greatness. It is a transaction, a pragmatic arrangement between two mature economies. The true test of sovereignty is not the ability to sign a cheque, but the ability to forge a national project that inspires and endures. Until we can do that, we will remain what we have become: a museum of past glories, curated by foreign investors.
