The political establishment in Bogota is reeling tonight. Early results from Colombia's presidential election point to a stunning victory for the outsider candidate, Javier Rojas. Backed by former US President Donald Trump, Rojas has tapped into a deep vein of anti-establishment anger. The initial count shows him with a commanding lead over the favoured candidate from the traditional centre-right. This is more than a mere electoral upset. This is a political earthquake. The old order in Colombian politics – the families, the factions, the fixers – is staring into the abyss.
Let me break down what we know. With 40% of precincts reporting, Rojas has secured 58% of the vote. His rival, the establishment pick Carlos Mendez, is haemorrhaging support in rural and working-class areas. The Rojas campaign was a masterclass in modern populism. Slick social media, relentless attacks on the 'corrupt elite', and a direct line to Mar-a-Lago. Trump recorded several robocalls for him. The message was simple: drain the swamp. Colombian voters, tired of corruption scandals and a stagnant economy, lapped it up.
But the real story is what happens next. Rojas has promised to tear up the peace deal with FARC rebels and renegotiate trade agreements. The US State Department is in crisis mode. A source inside the Foreign Office tells me they are 'deeply concerned' about instability in a key ally. The Colombian peso has already tumbled. Markets hate uncertainty. And Rojas is nothing if not unpredictable.
There are, of course, the inevitable comparisons to the Trump victory in 2016. But this is different. Colombia has no electoral college. This is a direct popular vote. The margin of victory, if it holds, will be decisive. Rojas will have a mandate. And he has promised to use it. 'They will not steal this election,' he declared earlier tonight. It was a dog whistle to the same 'stop the steal' rhetoric that convulsed Washington in 2020. The establishment is terrified.
What about the backbench? In Westminster, Labour MPs are watching with horror. They have long championed the Colombian peace process. A Rojas victory would be a body blow to their foreign policy agenda. Tory MPs are more divided. Some Brexit hardliners see a kindred spirit. Others, particularly those on the One Nation wing, fear the instability. Look for a frantic round of ministerial calls to Bogota in the coming hours.
This is a developing story. I will have more as the votes are counted. But one thing is already clear. Colombian politics has been turned upside down. And the reverberations will be felt from Downing Street to the White House.