Bogota, Colombia. A political earthquake. Carlos Moreno, a hard-right populist with no prior government experience, has won the Colombian presidency. The man the Washington establishment dismissed as a “YouTube gadfly” just humiliated the centrist establishment. And the West is scrambling to understand what just hit it.
Moreno, 52, a former television host and self-styled “anti-corruption crusader,” secured 54% of the vote. His opponent, former Finance Minister Ana Lucia Ramirez, conceded within an hour of polls closing. The victory speech was vintage Moreno: “The elites told you not to vote for me. The Americans warned you. The Europeans lectured you. You said no. You said enough.” Cue the cheering crowds waving Colombian flags mixed with Trump 2024 banners.
The parallels with Donald Trump are deliberate. Moreno’s campaign was a direct copy of the 2016 Trump playbook. Anti-immigrant rhetoric, attacks on “globalist” trade deals, and a promise to “make Colombia safe again.” He called the peace accord with FARC rebels a “sellout.” He threatened to renegotiate the US-Colombia free trade agreement. The US ambassador issued a tepid statement “hoping for continued cooperation.” Translation: deep unease.
But this is more than a copycat win. It signals a deeper, structural shift. For decades, Colombia was a reliable US ally in a turbulent region. The poster child for the War on Drugs. Billions in US aid. Now that assumption is shattered.
What happened? Three factors.
First, the endless corruption scandals. Every Colombian government since the 1990s has been tainted by graft. The Odebrecht scandal touched three presidents. The “narco-politics” link is a running sore. Moreno’s appeal: “I’m not one of them.” It resonated with a population tired of the revolving door of elite families.
Second, the economy. Colombia grew, but inequality festered. The IMF praised Bogota’s fiscal discipline, but the man on the street saw stagnant wages and rising crime. Moreno promised a “people’s stimulus” and a tougher line on Venezuela. Simple slogans. Powerful.
Third, the collapse of the centre. Ramirez ran a textbook campaign. Endorsed by both the Colombian Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. She had the backing of the EU and the OAS. She spoke of “continuity” and “institutional strength.” It was exactly what the electorate rejected.
Now the question: What does this mean for the region? The West’s influence is waning. Not just in Colombia. Across Latin America, left-wing and right-wing populists are winning. The US is too distracted by its own political wars to care. Europe is a backwater. China is writing cheques. Russia is offering weapons. The old rules no longer apply.
Back in the Palace of Nariño, Moreno is already planning his first 100 days. Repeal the peace accord. Withdraw from the International Criminal Court. Declare a state of emergency to fight “narco-terrorism.” The Colombian establishment is terrified. The US State Department is scrambling for a Plan B. But the silence from the White House is telling. Trump’s team is crowing. Another win for the global populist movement.
Eleanor Rigby's take: This is not a blip. It’s a pattern. The West has lost the narrative. We are no longer the shining city on the hill. We are the old, tired incumbents. And the outsiders are winning. Watch Colombia closely. The mold is broken.
