A political outsider endorsed by Donald Trump has won Colombia’s presidential election, raising concerns among British investors about the stability of the country’s economic institutions and its commitment to long-standing bilateral trade agreements. The President-elect, a former businessman with no prior political experience, campaigned on a populist platform promising to overhaul Colombia’s energy sector, renegotiate foreign investment terms, and adopt a more protectionist stance.
The victory, which was confirmed late on Sunday, sent shockwaves through international markets. The Colombian peso fell by 4 per cent in early trading against the US dollar, and the Bogotá stock exchange saw a sell-off in energy and infrastructure stocks. British investors, who have significant holdings in Colombia’s oil, mining, and renewable energy sectors, were advised by the UK Foreign Office to review their exposure and consider political risk insurance.
The President-elect’s campaign was marked by combative rhetoric towards foreign corporations, specifically those from Europe and the United States. He has signalled plans to increase state control over natural resources, impose higher taxes on foreign profits, and withdraw from several bilateral investment treaties. “Colombia for Colombians” was a frequent slogan.
Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit downgraded Colombia’s sovereign risk rating one notch, citing “institutional strain” and the possibility of executive overreach. The new leader has already indicated he will seek to purge the central bank’s board and replace independent regulators with loyalists. “What we are seeing is a replay of the playbook used in other resource-rich nations that have swung sharply populist,” said a senior fellow at Chatham House.
The British Chamber of Commerce in Colombia urged calm but acknowledged that the short-term outlook was uncertain. “Investors should not panic, but they must prepare for a more challenging operating environment,” its director said. “We are advising members to diversify supply chains and secure local legal counsel.”
The UK is Colombia’s third-largest foreign investor, with British companies employing an estimated 120,000 people in the country. Key sectors include oil and gas, mining, finance, and infrastructure. BP, Glencore, and HSBC have substantial operations. The Foreign Office statement warned that “changes to the regulatory framework could affect the viability of current contracts and future projects.”
The President-elect’s victory also has implications for regional stability. He has expressed admiration for Venezuela’s authoritarian model and signalled a desire to reduce cooperation with the United States on counter-narcotics. Observers fear a potential rift with Washington, which has long been Bogotá’s most important strategic partner.
British diplomatic sources said they would seek an early meeting with the incoming administration to reaffirm ties and stress the importance of rule of law. “We will be clear about our expectations regarding contract sanctity and fair treatment,” one official said. “But we are under no illusions that the environment has changed.”
The President-elect is due to be sworn in on 7 August. Until then, markets are expected to remain volatile, and investors are advised to monitor political developments closely.