A political earthquake in Colombia has sent shockwaves through Whitehall. The surprise victory of a Trump-endorsed outsider, Rodrigo Hernández, in the Colombian presidential election has prompted the Foreign Office to issue a stark warning about the destabilisation of Latin America. For the working people of Britain, this is not a distant diplomatic squabble. It is a threat to the price of coffee, the security of supply chains, and the jobs that depend on them.
Hernández, a former businessman with no political experience, swept to power on a platform of anti-corruption and populist economics. His campaign was buoyed by a series of tweets from Donald Trump and financial backing from US-linked political action committees. He defeated the established candidate, a centre-left former mayor, by a margin of 52% to 48%. The result has been met with alarm in London, where officials fear a domino effect of populist uprisings across the region.
The Foreign Office issued a statement on Thursday morning expressing “deep concern” over the outcome and warning that the new president’s policies could “undermine democratic institutions and economic stability in Colombia and beyond.” A senior diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Times: “We are watching a slow-motion crisis. The region is already fragile. This could be the spark.”
For the average Briton, the immediate impact will be felt in the supermarket aisle. Colombia is the world’s third largest coffee exporter and a key supplier of flowers, bananas, and crude oil. Any disruption to its economy will push up prices. The cost of a jar of instant coffee has already risen by 12% over the past year due to global supply issues. Hernández’s threat to renegotiate trade deals and nationalise energy assets could add another 10p to the price of a jar.
But the concern goes beyond shopping baskets. The UK has £2.3bn in trade with Colombia, supporting thousands of jobs in sectors from mining to financial services. Many of those jobs are in regions that can least afford to lose them. A trade war or political crisis could see British firms pull out, hitting communities from the Clyde to the Valleys. The stock market has already taken a hit, with the FTSE 100 falling by 1.5% on the news.
Trade unions, which have long warned of the fragility of global supply chains, are backing the government’s cautious approach. ‘The working families of this country have been let down by a system that puts profits before stability,’ said Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the TUC. ‘We need a robust plan to protect jobs and living standards here at home. That means securing our supply lines and investing in domestic production.’
The Confederation of British Industry has urged calm, but acknowledged the risks. ‘Colombia is an important partner,’ said its director general, Tony Danker. ‘But we must be prepared for all outcomes. British businesses will need support to navigate this uncertainty.’
In the industrial heartlands of the North, where I was raised, the mood is one of weary resignation. ‘It’s always the same,’ said Margaret, a 62-year-old shop worker in Leeds. ‘We hear about some crisis abroad, and then the prices go up. It’s the working class that pays.’ Her words reflect a deeper truth: global events have local consequences, and those with the least are hit the hardest.
The government’s warning is timely, but it must be backed by action. The cost of living crisis is already squeezing household budgets. A disruption to trade with Colombia could push more families into hardship. We need a government that stands up for British workers, not just British business. That means using every lever of diplomacy and trade policy to shield the economy from external shocks.
For now, the world watches as Colombia’s new leader takes the reins. The hope is that the transition will be smooth. But history teaches us that populism, once unleashed, is hard to control. London is right to be worried. The price of that worry, as ever, will be paid at the kitchen table.