The unthinkable has happened. Gustavo Petro, the surprise frontrunner backed by a strange coalition including Trump loyalists and local populists, has seized the presidency in Colombia. The London establishment is scrambling to calibrate its response.
Early whispers from the FCDO suggest a pragmatic line: stability above all else. Trade ties are the key concern. Colombia is a crucial partner in the region, and the UK wants no disruption to the flow of coffee, flowers, and coal.
But there is an undercurrent of unease. This is a man who has built his campaign on anti-establishment rage, promising to tear up existing trade deals and renegotiate from scratch. The question is whether the rhetoric survives contact with reality.
Sources close to the ambassador in Bogota report a flurry of meetings with Petro's transition team. They are probing for signs of moderation. The betting in the lobby is that Petro will pivot towards the centre, as so many firebrands do once they taste power.
But there is a chance he is the real deal. If he follows through on protectionist pledges, UK exporters will feel the pinch. The business lobby is already agitating for a charm offensive.
Expect a flurry of ministerial visits in the coming weeks. The game is to lock in as much as possible before the new president's honeymoon period ends. The PM's office is keeping a nervous eye on the polls.
A foreign policy crisis here would be a gift to the opposition. For now, the public line is cautiously optimistic. But behind closed doors, the mood is one of steely calculation.
This is a risk that demands careful management. The prize is a continued foothold in a volatile region. The cost could be a blow to UK trade ambitions.
Stay tuned for more leaks from the corridors of power.
