Colombia has elected a maverick populist candidate with ties to Donald Trump's political network, sending ripples through Britain's Foreign Office and raising questions about the future of UK-Colombia trade ties.
The victor, businessman-turned-politician Oscar Salinas, triumphed on a platform of 'Put Colombia First', pledging to renegotiate trade deals and crack down on drug cartels with an iron fist. His win marks a sharp lurch to the right for the South American nation, a historic ally of the UK in the region.
For British exporters and investors, the change in Bogota could be double-edged. Colombia is one of Latin America's fastest growing economies and a key partner for UK aerospace, mining and energy firms. Over 150 British companies operate there, from BP to GlaxoSmithKline. Salinas has signalled he wants a 'better deal' for Colombian farmers and manufacturers, which may mean higher tariffs on British goods.
But his fierce anti-drug message and promises to dismantle leftist guerilla groups are likely to please Whitehall security hawks. Successive British governments have poured millions into counter-narcotics and rural development programs in Colombia. Salinas has called for a 'full military assault' on the National Liberation Army and dissident FARC factions, a policy close to the Trump playbook that could reduce cocaine flows to Europe.
Union leaders and human rights groups here are deeply anxious. Salinas has threatened to strip collective bargaining rights from informal workers and slash environmental protections to boost mining exports. 'This is a dark day for Colombian working people,' said Maria Lopez from the National Union School in Bogota. 'He talks about the poor but his policies will enrich the few.'
The Foreign Office is treading carefully. A spokesperson said the UK 'looks forward to working with the new government to deepen our shared prosperity and security'. But behind the scenes, diplomats are dusting off contingency plans for a less predictable partner.
Salinas' victory is also a test for Britain's post-Brexit trade agenda. The UK signed a continuity trade deal with Colombia in 2020 after leaving the EU, but it was largely a copy of the old EU pact. A full renegotiation is not expected soon, but Salinas' agenda could stall ratifications of newer side deals on digital trade and green finance.
For now, the price of a cup of coffee in Manchester may not rise overnight. But if Salinas follows through on protectionist promises, the cost of Colombian flowers, bananas and coal could increase. Labour MPs are already calling on ministers to protect British consumers and workers from any fallout.
Just this week, Salinas met with British embassy officials in Bogota. He struck a cordial tone but warned: 'We will not be anyone's colony any more. Not America's, not China's, not Britain's.'
That line, critics say, is pure copybook Trump. For British industry and security, the real impact will be felt only when the promises meet the reality of governing a country still riven by inequality and violence.
