The thaw between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi has taken a dramatic turn. The former US president confirmed overnight he will visit India next month, a move that could upend months of delicate negotiations between London and New Delhi over a post-Brexit trade deal.
For the British government, the timing could not be worse. The UK is racing to finalise a free trade agreement with India before the end of the year, a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific tilt. But Trump’s visit, and his known hostility to multilateral trade pacts, raises the prospect of a competing US-India deal that would undercut British exporters.
“The prime minister’s strategy is to deepen ties with India, but Trump throws a grenade into the room,” said a senior Whitehall source. “We’re watching developments closely.”
At stake are tariff reductions on Scotch whisky, British cars, and financial services. India has been pushing for easier visa access for its workers in exchange. The talks have been fraught, with both sides accusing the other of intransigence.
Trump’s relationship with Modi has been a rollercoaster. Once warm allies, they clashed over trade tariffs and immigration during his presidency. The visit is seen as an attempt to repair ties ahead of the 2024 US election, where Trump is expected to run again. For Modi, a successful summit would boost his global standing ahead of India’s own elections next year.
But for British negotiators, the optics are troubling. Trump is likely to demand that India shift supply chains away from China and toward the US, a pivot that would leave British firms scrambling for scraps. “If Trump offers Modi a better deal, the UK’s leverage vanishes,” said Sarah Jenkins, Economy and Labour Reporter for the Financial Times. “This is about bread and butter for British workers. A lost trade deal means fewer jobs in the Midlands and Scotland.”
Union leaders have already warned that any deal must protect workers’ rights. The TUC’s Frances O’Grady said, “We cannot have a race to the bottom on wages. If India wants access to our markets, it must guarantee fair labour standards.”
The visit is set for late March, with a joint business summit planned. The UK government insists it remains confident of sealing a deal regardless of Trump’s presence. But behind the scenes, officials are scrambling to lock in commitments before Trump’s Air Force One touches down in New Delhi.
For now, the fate of a British trade deal rests on the whims of two mercurial leaders. And for the working families in the industrial North, the wait feels agonisingly long.
