LONDON. White House strategy on Iran has undergone a significant recalibration, according to UK intelligence sources familiar with the negotiations. The shift, which pits the current administration’s approach against that of its predecessor, reflects a realignment of diplomatic leverage that could reshape the nuclear deal.
Sources indicate that the Trump administration has abandoned the multilateral framework championed by Obama, opting instead for a bilateral pressure campaign. This approach, characterised by the reimposition of sanctions and the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has isolated Washington from its European allies while emboldening Tehran’s hardliners.
“The leverage has flipped,” a senior intelligence analyst told this correspondent. “Obama had Europe and Russia onside, creating a unified front. Trump has traded that for unilateral coercive measures, which have weakened the West’s hand.”
The analysis is supported by diplomatic cables seen by The Times, which show that European capitals are now exploring alternative payment mechanisms to bypass US sanctions. This fragmentation has reduced the pressure on Iran, which has responded by accelerating its uranium enrichment programme.
“The JCPOA was imperfect, but it provided a framework for verification,” said a former UK ambassador to Tehran. “Now we have no inspectors on the ground and a regime that is three months away from a nuclear weapon.”
The White House has dismissed these concerns, arguing that the “maximum pressure” campaign will force Iran back to the negotiating table on more favourable terms. However, internal assessments from the UK Foreign Office suggest this is unlikely, given the domestic political constraints facing President Rouhani.
“Obama understood the importance of coalition diplomacy,” the analyst added. “Trump’s unilateralism has created a vacuum that Russia and China are keen to fill.”
The implications for British national security are profound. The UK, which has remained a signatory to the JCPOA, now finds itself squeezed between Washington and Brussels. The risk of a nuclear-armed Iran, once considered remote, is now a tangible threat.
“This is a crisis of institutional integrity,” a former UK defence secretary commented. “The special relationship cannot blind us to the folly of abandoning a deal that worked.”
As the November deadline for the next round of negotiations approaches, the question of who holds the leverage may well determine the stability of the Middle East for generations.
