The government has described a potential 100% tariff on UK exports to the United States under a re-elected Donald Trump as “devastating” for Midlands manufacturing. Internal Treasury analyses seen by this newspaper estimate that more than 150,000 jobs in the region could be at risk if the Republican candidate follows through on campaign threats to impose the levy on all foreign goods.
The warning comes as union leaders and business groups urge ministers to prepare emergency support for factories in Birmingham, Coventry, and the Black Country. These areas rely heavily on car parts, machinery, and aerospace components sold to American buyers. The car industry alone employs 90,000 people in the West Midlands, and many of those roles depend on tariff-free access to the US market.
One Treasury official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “The numbers are stark. We have modelled a worst-case scenario where trade with the US halves overnight. That would mean production lines going silent, firms collapsing, and families losing their incomes. The Chancellor’s team is working on contingency plans, but there is only so much we can do if Washington pulls the trigger.”
Trump’s proposed tariff, floated during a rally in New Hampshire last week, would effectively double the price of British goods sold in America. The former president has made no secret of his desire to punish countries he deems to have unfair trade surpluses. The UK ran a goods trade surplus with the US of £2.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, but the Treasury analysis warns that this could quickly turn into a deficit as exports slump.
The Midlands Engine Partnership, a government-backed growth body, has already warned of a “catastrophic” hit to the region’s economy. Its chief executive, Sarah Gledhill, told the BBC: “Our manufacturers are already struggling with high energy costs and a shortage of skilled workers. A 100% tariff would be a body blow. Many firms would not survive.”
Union leaders are also fearful. Unite the Union, which represents thousands of car workers in the region, called on ministers to “do whatever it takes” to protect jobs. Its general secretary, Sharon Graham, said: “Workers in the Midlands have been let down by decades of deindustrialisation. They cannot be collateral damage in a trade war. The government must guarantee wages and jobs if these tariffs come in.”
The Treasury analysis suggests that the government could mitigate some damage by offering export insurance, tax breaks, and wage subsidies to affected firms. But such measures would cost billions at a time when the public finances are already strained. The document warns that borrowing may have to rise, or spending on other departments cut, to fund a rescue package.
Industry groups are also pushing for a diplomatic solution. The Confederation of British Industry has urged the Foreign Office to lobby the Trump campaign directly, arguing that a trade war would hurt American consumers and businesses too. But with the US election just months away, there is little appetite in Washington for concessions.
Around 300,000 people in the Midlands work in manufacturing, a higher proportion than any other English region. The sector accounts for 15% of the region’s economic output. A sudden collapse in export orders would therefore have a devastating ripple effect, hitting warehouses, logistics firms, and high street shops.
For workers like Dave Miller, 54, a machinist at a Coventry aerospace plant, the news has already caused anxiety. “We heard about this on the radio in the canteen. The manager tried to calm us down, but you could see the fear in his eyes. I have a mortgage and two kids in college. I don’t know what I’d do if the factory closed.”
Number 10 declined to comment on the Treasury analysis, but a spokesperson said: “We are preparing for all scenarios. The UK’s trading relationship with the US is strong and we believe it will remain so regardless of the election outcome. We will always stand up for British jobs and British industry.”
But for the Midlands, that promise may soon be tested like never before.
