The visit of former US President Donald Trump to India, though ostensibly a bilateral affair, carries profound implications for the United Kingdom’s post-Brexit trade strategy. Trump’s overtures towards New Delhi underscore a broader realignment of global trade flows, one that the UK must navigate with alacrity if it is to secure its economic future outside the European Union.
During his visit, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed their commitment to a bilateral trade agreement, with discussions centring on tariff reductions and enhanced market access. While the specifics remain opaque, the optics are clear: the US is pivoting towards the Indo-Pacific, and India is a cornerstone of that strategy. For the UK, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity.
The challenge is one of timing. The UK is still negotiating its own trade deals, having left the EU’s customs union and single market. Its agreement with the US remains elusive, stalled by disagreements over agricultural standards and digital services. India, meanwhile, is a rising economic power with a rapidly expanding middle class. A US-India deal could lock in preferential terms for American exporters, placing British firms at a disadvantage in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
But this is where the opportunity lies. The UK has a historic advantage: the Commonwealth. India is a former British colony and a member of the Commonwealth, a network of 54 nations that share legal systems, language, and cultural ties. While the economic significance of the Commonwealth has waned in recent decades, the UK can revive it as a platform for trade liberalisation. By securing a comprehensive free trade agreement with India, the UK can not only counterbalance US influence but also set a template for deals with other Commonwealth nations such as Australia, Canada, and South Africa.
The numbers are compelling. The Commonwealth accounts for over 2.5 billion people and a combined GDP of roughly $13 trillion. Currently, intra-Commonwealth trade is estimated at around $700 billion per year, but studies suggest that eliminating tariff and non-tariff barriers could boost this by $1 trillion by 2030. For the UK, which exports goods worth £16 billion to India alone, the potential upside is substantial. Sectors such as financial services, education, and renewable energy are particularly well-positioned.
Critics will argue that the Commonwealth is too diverse to serve as a cohesive trading bloc, and they are not entirely wrong. India’s protectionist instincts, for example, have long frustrated negotiators. But the UK can leverage shared legal traditions and the English language to create a regulatory framework that reduces frictions. The UK’s departure from the EU gives it the freedom to tailor deals to the specific needs of each Commonwealth partner, rather than adhering to Brussels’ homogenised standards.
Moreover, the geopolitical context demands action. The US is increasingly focused on China containment, viewing India as a strategic counterweight. The UK, as a member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and a permanent UN Security Council member, should align itself with this strategy while carving out its own economic sphere. A Commonwealth trade network would not only boost British exports but also strengthen the rules-based international order that the UK has long championed.
The window of opportunity is narrow. Trump’s visit is a reminder that global trade is being rewritten, and those who hesitate will be left behind. The UK must act now: fast-track negotiations with India, host a Commonwealth trade summit, and present a coherent vision for a network of deals that leverages historical ties for modern economic gain. Failure to do so will cede ground to both the US and China, leaving the UK adrift in a world of competing blocs.
In short, Trump’s India visit is a wake-up call. The UK needs to secure a Commonwealth deal, not as a sentimental throwback, but as a pragmatic strategy for the 21st century. The data is clear. The urgency is real.
