The self-styled kingmaker's Midas touch has failed in the Iowa heartland. A candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump was defeated in a key primary contest last night, a result that British political analysts say signals dangerous fractures within the Republican Party.
The loss, in a district that twice voted for Trump by double digits, has sent shockwaves through the political establishment. For the man who has dominated the party since 2016, it is a rare and stinging rebuke from the very voters who have been his most loyal base.
So what does this mean for the 'Real Economy' of American politics? For the union workers in the Rust Belt, the farmers in the Midwest, the waitresses in Florida who once saw Trump as their champion against the coastal elites, this primary result raises a troubling question: Is the movement losing its power?
The defeated candidate had run squarely on the Trump platform: trade wars, immigration crackdowns, a suspicion of global alliances. But in the end, it was not enough. Local issues – the price of corn, the closure of a meatpacking plant, the failure to deliver on a new highway – trumped national loyalty.
British analysts, accustomed to watching the US from across the pond, see a party tearing itself apart. On one side are the 'MAGA diehards', who want total fealty to Trump's agenda. On the other are pragmatists and establishment figures who fear that the Trump brand is now toxic with suburban voters. This primary was a test, and the pragmatists won.
But do not mistake this for a return to normal. The forces that propelled Trump to power – stagnant wages, regional inequality, a sense that the system is rigged against working people – are still there. They are not going away. What we are seeing is a battle over who best represents that anger.
For the unions, many of whom have kept their distance from Trump despite his overtures, this result is a signal that worker loyalties are up for grabs. The candidate who won ran on protecting Social Security and Medicare, on raising the minimum wage. It was a message that resonated in a district where the cost of a loaf of bread has risen faster than pay packets.
The key lesson for London and for Brussels is clear: American politics is entering a new, more volatile phase. The era of Trump as king is over, but the era of Trumpism is far from dead. It is mutating. And that could prove even more dangerous for global stability.
For the price of bread in Britain, for the strength of our own unions, for the feeling in the North that we too have been left behind, this Iowa primary is a warning. The anger that elected Trump is still there. It is just looking for a new home.
