The Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has ordered the closure of several leading media outlets. The move, announced late Tuesday, targets Daily Monitor, The Observer, and two radio stations. They are accused of 'systematically undermining national security'. No evidence has been provided.
This is not a subtle signal. It is a sledgehammer. The outlets are among the last remaining independent voices in Uganda. Their crime? Reporting on dissent within the military. Specifically, they covered a leaked memo showing officers unhappy with Kainerugaba's rumoured presidential ambitions.
Downing Street reacted within hours. A Foreign Office spokesperson called the closures 'a grave assault on press freedom'. They warned of 'democratic backsliding'. A statement is expected from the Foreign Secretary tomorrow. Quietly, officials are assessing what leverage they have. Aid? Trade preferences? The answer is likely not much.
Kainerugaba is not just any general. He is the son of President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled since 1986. The son is widely seen as the heir apparent. This crackdown is his audition. A show of strength. A message to both domestic opponents and international observers: he will not be bound by norms.
The timing is notable. It comes just days before a Commonwealth parliamentary conference in Kampala. Delegates from across Africa and the UK were due to arrive. Some are now reconsidering. The optics are terrible. A host nation jailing journalists while preaching democratic values.
Inside the Foreign Office, there is frustration. Uganda is a key partner on regional security, particularly in Somalia and South Sudan. Past human rights concerns have been quietly managed. But this creates a new dynamic. The UK cannot be seen as complicit. Yet it needs Uganda's cooperation on terrorism and migration.
Opposition figures in Kampala are emboldened. Dr. Kizza Besigye, a four-time presidential candidate, called for 'total resistance'. He is likely to face arrest. His supporters are already gathering in Kampala's suburbs. The police have been given shoot-to-kill orders for anyone 'blocking roads'. This is how it starts.
For the journalists targeted, this is life or death. Some have gone into hiding. Others are seeking exile. The Committee to Protect Journalists has issued an emergency alert. They note that Uganda now ranks 125th on the World Press Freedom Index. It is sliding fast.
What comes next? The UK could impose sanctions. Asset freezes on the general and his inner circle. Visa bans on senior military figures. But that would require political will. And a recognition that Uganda is not following the path of Rwanda or Ethiopia. It is choosing the path of Zimbabwe or Belarus.
Downing Street will watch the Commonwealth conference closely. If delegates pull out, the message is clear. If they attend as planned, the message is also clear. This is a test. Not of Uganda's democracy. But of the UK's willingness to confront an ally.
I am hearing from a well-placed source that a private note has been sent to Museveni from Number 10. It is described as 'firm but not threatening'. That is diplomatic code for 'we are very worried but have no good options'. Expect more of the same: statements, warnings, and quiet despair.
