Nigeria has begun evacuating its citizens from South Africa. The move is a response to escalating anti-migrant violence in Johannesburg. One hundred and sixty five Nigerians have been booked on flights home. More are expected to follow.
The trouble started last week. South African mobs, angry at high unemployment, turned on foreign-owned shops. The violence has since spread to other cities. At least five people are dead. Two of them are Nigerian.
Now Whitehall is watching closely. The fear is simple: contagion. The UK has its own anti-migrant tensions. They are simmering just below the surface. Home Office sources tell me they are “monitoring the situation very carefully.”
Why the concern? Because the unrest in South Africa is driven by the same forces that powered Brexit. The same forces that put Boris Johnson in Number 10. Globalisation’s losers. People who feel left behind. People who see migrants as the cause of their pain.
South Africa’s unemployment rate is 29%. For young people, it is over 50%. The UK’s is 3.8%. But the gap between London and the rest is vast. In some northern towns, unemployment is double the national average. Resentment is building.
The Government knows this. That is why Priti Patel’s Australian-style points-based system was sold as a way to “take back control.” That is why the Rwanda deportation plan was announced with such fanfare. It is a signal to the base: we see you. We hear you.
But signals are not enough. The Home Office is bracing for a summer of discontent. Asylum claims are up. Small boat crossings are up. The backlog in the system is at a record high. Over 100,000 cases are waiting for a decision.
Meanwhile, far-right groups are organising. They are using social media to spread fear. They are capitalising on every incident. A knife attack in Reading. A stabbing in Manchester. Each one is used as proof that the system is broken.
The Nigeria evacuation is a canary in the coalmine. South Africa is a warning. If the UK cannot manage its migration crisis, the streets could boil over. Labour is watching too. They know that if the Tories fail, they will be the ones left to pick up the pieces.
One thing is certain: the next few months will define the next election. The battle for control of the borders is not just about policy. It is about the soul of the country. And right now, that soul is restless.
