The South African street is boiling over. Anti-migrant protests, which began in Johannesburg's CBD last week, have metastasised into a nationwide convulsion. Townships from Soweto to Khayelitsha are seeing roadblocks, looting, and vigilante groups demanding foreigners 'go home'. The British High Commission in Pretoria has been quietly moved to 'high alert'. Sources tell me the security posture has been upgraded. Non-essential staff are being advised to stay home. This is not a drill.
The trigger? A pogrom-like atmosphere in Alexandria township on Tuesday night. A mob, emboldened by claims that migrants are stealing jobs and housing, torched a row of shops owned by Somali and Pakistani nationals. Two people are confirmed dead. The police response? Pathetic. Outnumbered and outmanoeuvred by xenophobic rage, they have been reduced to firefighting. President Ramaphosa has denounced the violence, but his words feel like a leaflet in a hurricane.
Why does this matter for Whitehall? Because the blowback is already coming. The National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (NATJOINTS) is warning of potential attacks on diplomatic missions. The British embassy, a glass-and-steel fortress on Arcadia Street, is a prime target. Last night, I am told, the High Commissioner had a tense conference call with the Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office. The question: do we evacuate dependents? The answer, for now, is no. But that could change in 24 hours.
The political calculations are brutal. Ramaphosa is facing an election in 2024. His ANC base is seething with anti-immigrant sentiment. He cannot be seen as defending 'outsiders' without risking a revolt in the party's heartland. Meanwhile, the UK has its own migrant crisis to manage. Home Office sources are watching this with eagle eyes. The fear is that images of burning trucks in Pretoria will inflame nativist passions in the Home Counties. 'It's a preview of what could happen here if we don't get a grip,' one minister muttered to me.
Behind the scenes, the Embassy has activated its Crisis Management Team. They are dusting off the 'Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation' (NEO) plan. The last time this was seriously considered was during the 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal. Then, the situation stabilised. This time feels different. The protests are more organised. WhatsApp groups are coordinating attacks. There is an architecture of hatred.
The diplomatic fallout is also real. Nigeria has already summoned South Africa's ambassador. Kenya has issued a travel advisory. The African Union is making noise. But none of this will stop the mob. The UK, for its part, is walking a tightrope. Publicly, it calls for calm. Privately, it is urging Ramaphosa to deploy the army. The army is reluctant. Too many politicised generals. Too much history.
What happens next? Expect more violence. The weather forecast for the weekend is clear. Perfect for burning. The embassy will hold. But the real question is whether xenophobia will become a permanent feature of South African politics. If it does, the UK will have to rethink its entire relationship with the continent's most important economy. That prospect keeps officials awake at night. I know because they told me. Off the record, of course.
