The clock is ticking on North American free trade. And No. 10 is suddenly very interested in what happens next.
I am told the UK's trade department has been quietly sounding out Canada and Mexico. The goal? Separate bilateral agreements. The subtext? We are not waiting for Washington.
The North American free trade agreement, or NAFTA, faces a crunch deadline. Renegotiation talks are stalled. Protectionist noises from the White House grow louder by the day.
For British trade negotiators, it is a moment of opportunity. And risk.
The opportunity: securing access to two major economies without being held hostage by US gridlock. A UK-Canada deal has long been on the wish list. Canada is a fellow Commonwealth realm, a natural partner. Mexico is the rising star, youthful and hungry.
But the risk is real. Push too hard, too fast, and you annoy the Americans. The UK needs a US trade deal more than it needs Canadian beef or Mexican avocados. The mood in the Lobby is cautious. One veteran trade journalist put it bluntly: “We are the puppy at the dinner table. Wagging our tail at everyone, hoping for scraps. The Americans see this.”
Privately, officials insist the talks are “exploratory.” They stress no formal negotiations have begun. But the timeline tells a different story. The NAFTA deadline is weeks away. If it collapses, the UK wants to be first in line with alternative arrangements.
The politics are delicate at home too. Brexit loyalists want tangible proof of “Global Britain.” A Canadian trade deal would be a trophy. But critics warn of overreach. “We can’t do three big trade deals at once,” a former minister told me. “We barely have the bandwidth for the EU.”
The EU. The elephant in the room. While the UK scouts for new friends in North America, the real prize remains a comprehensive deal with Brussels. And that is going nowhere fast.
Still, the Downing Street machine sees value in multiple irons in the fire. It sends a message: Britain is open for business, nimble, ready to pivot.
The Canadian High Commission in London is playing it cool. “We always welcome discussions with our friends,” a spokesperson said. The Mexicans are more effusive. They see the UK as a gateway to Europe.
But the question that hangs over this whole enterprise is simple: Can Britain walk and chew gum at the same time? The trade department is already stretched thin. The same officials working on NAFTA fallback are also working on EU negotiations, US talks, and an Indo-Pacific tilt.
One inside source described the scene at the Department for International Trade as a “pressure cooker.” Morale is fragile. The permanent secretary recently warned of “unsustainable” workloads.
So, is this a genuine push for bilateral deals? Or a diplomatic feint to put pressure on the US?
My hunch: a bit of both. The UK wants the deals. But it also wants the Americans to know there are other options. Classic negotiation tactics. The question is whether the tactics are backed by real capacity.
The next few weeks will be telling. If the NAFTA deadline passes without a deal, expect announcements. If a US-UK deal suddenly advances, the Canadian and Mexican dossiers will gather dust.
Either way, watch this space. The game is on.
