Britain is bracing for a prolonged period of instability as the United States and Israel pursue an aggressive reordering of the Middle East, according to senior diplomatic sources. The assessment, described internally as a “permacrisis”, reflects growing alarm in Whitehall that the region is entering a volatile new phase without clear exit strategies.
The warning follows a series of moves by the Trump administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government: the US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and the quiet abandonment of the two-state solution. In tandem, the US has intensified its maximum pressure campaign against Iran, while Israel has conducted strikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Iraq.
For London, the ramifications are deeply unwelcome. The UK relies on a stable Middle East for energy security, counterterrorism cooperation, and the management of refugee flows. The current trajectory risks inflaming sectarian tensions, empowering extremist groups, and triggering a new cycle of violence that could spill over into Europe.
One Foreign Office official described the situation as “a perfect storm” in which US policy is driven by domestic political considerations and Israeli strategic interests, with little regard for long-term consequences. “We are seeing the architecture of regional stability dismantled piece by piece,” the official said. “There is no plan for what comes next.”
The British government has sought to maintain a public posture of support for its allies while privately expressing concern. Prime Minister Theresa May has avoided direct criticism of President Trump, but her diplomats have been clear in briefings that the UK cannot endorse a process that undermines the prospects for a negotiated peace.
The shift in US policy has also complicated Britain’s role as a mediator. London has traditionally positioned itself as a bridge between Washington and Europe, and between Israel and the Arab world. That role is now significantly harder to play when the US is seen as an actor in the conflict rather than an honest broker.
Moreover, the UK is vulnerable to the fallout from any escalation. The 2017 Manchester Arena bombing highlighted the domestic threat posed by instability in the Middle East. British intelligence agencies are already monitoring a rise in extremist rhetoric linked to events in Jerusalem and the occupied territories.
The permacrisis warning has been echoed by think tanks and former diplomats. Sir John Sawers, former head of MI6, has argued that the US approach is creating a “vacuum of diplomacy” that will be filled by Russia and Iran. “The West’s ability to shape events in the Middle East is diminishing,” he said in a recent speech. “That is a dangerous development for global security.”
For now, the UK’s options are limited. It can seek to strengthen European coordination, invest in conflict prevention programmes, and maintain dialogue with all parties. But without a change in US policy, British officials acknowledge that the best they can hope for is to manage the damage.
As one diplomat put it: “We are not in a position to stop the train. We are trying to make sure it does not crash.”
