A newly declassified intelligence assessment from the United Kingdom has cast the deepening partnership between China and Russia as a structural alignment against the Western-led international order. The report, prepared by the Joint Intelligence Organisation and shared with allied capitals, describes a relationship that, while not a formal military alliance, increasingly functions as an ‘autocratic axis’ coordinating opposition to democratic institutions, economic governance, and security frameworks.
The assessment notes that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Beijing and Moscow have accelerated cooperation in defence, technology, and diplomatic messaging. It points to joint military exercises, growing trade in dual-use goods, and coordinated narratives in multilateral forums such as the United Nations. The report cites intelligence indicating that Chinese entities have supplied components used in Russian weapons systems, a charge Beijing denies.
UK intelligence analysts argue that the bond goes beyond transactional convenience. ‘Both states share a fundamental aversion to the rules-based order as led by Western powers,’ the assessment states. ‘Their partnership is not merely reactive but increasingly proactive in seeking to reshape global norms to favour authoritarian governance.’ The report highlights joint efforts to undermine sanctions regimes and to promote alternative financial systems that could reduce dependence on the dollar.
Western officials have long debated whether the Sino-Russian relationship constitutes a genuine alliance. The UK assessment suggests it may be more significant than a mere axis of convenience, but stops short of calling it a military alliance of the kind NATO represents. It describes a ‘strategic convergence’ that is expected to deepen regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Reaction from Moscow and Beijing has been predictably hostile. The Russian foreign ministry dismissed the report as ‘Anglo-Saxon propaganda’. The Chinese embassy in London said it was ‘groundless and reflects Cold War mentality’. However, the assessment comes as Western intelligence agencies share increasing evidence of technology transfers that have assisted Russia’s military production.
The report is likely to influence policy discussions ahead of the upcoming NATO summit, where allied leaders are expected to address the challenge of simultaneous threats from Russia and China. It also adds urgency to ongoing efforts to tighten export controls and to coordinate sanctions enforcement across the transatlantic community.
The UK assessment concludes that the West faces a long-term challenge from an axis that combines China’s economic weight and technological ambition with Russia’s military experience and resource base. It recommends sustained investment in defence, renewed diplomatic outreach to non-aligned nations, and greater resilience in key supply chains. The document warns that without a coherent response, the autocratic axis will continue to erode the foundations of the post-1945 order.
