The Treasury has briefed select Lobby journalists that a ban on Russian diesel and jet fuel imports will come into force on 1 January. The move is designed to squeeze Moscow's energy revenues and undercut its war machine.
Whitehall sources say the decision was taken at a late-night meeting in Number 10 last week, with the Prime Minister overruling Treasury officials who warned of higher pump prices. 'There is no appetite for delay,' a senior Downing Street aide told me. 'The public expects us to act.'
The ban covers refined oil products, including diesel, kerosene and heavy fuel oil. Russian crude was already banned under a G7 embargo. The new restrictions target the remaining $2bn worth of product imports that still flow into UK ports each year.
Industry figures are livid. The head of a major fuel distributor called the deadline 'ludicrous' and warned of disruption to HGV fleets. But the government is confident that alternative supplies from Saudi Arabia and the US can plug the gap. One Whitehall energy adviser described the move as 'a calculated risk'.
Machinations behind the scenes have been intense. The Foreign Office pushed for an earlier date. The Treasury wanted a phased reduction. Downing Street brokered a compromise that gives the market just three months to adjust.
'This is as much about symbolism as supply,' said a former energy minister who spoke on condition of anonymity. 'The PM wants to show he is serious about weakening Putin. But if there are shortages, the blame game will be brutal.'
Polling data shows strong public support for tougher sanctions. An internal Downing Street survey found that 68 per cent of voters back an immediate ban on all Russian energy imports, even if it means higher costs. Labour has signalled it will back the move, leaving the Conservative right isolated in their opposition.
The timing is also sensitive. Winter is coming. Diesel demand peaks in December as households prepare for snow. Any supply crunch would be political dynamite. Number 10 is betting that prices remain stable. They are gambling with the economy.
A Treasury source dismissed concerns: 'We have done the modelling. There will be no panic. The market will adjust.' But I remember the fuel crisis of 2021. And I remember the queues at the pumps. Governments that pretend to control supply chains are often humbled.
The Kremlin's reaction was predictable. Russian state media denounced the ban as an act of 'economic war'. But privately, diplomats in London say Moscow is feeling the strain. The energy sector is its lifeblood. Every drop of diesel that does not reach Britain is a dividend lost.
What comes next? The government is already eyeing Russian nickel and aluminium. But those sectors are tiny. The real prize is LNG. For now, that remains untouchable. But the Lobby is full of whispers that a full embargo is being prepared. Watch this space.
In the game of sanctions, this is a significant move. The question is whether the Treasury's nerve holds when the bills arrive.
