The Kremlin’s war machine is running on fumes. A series of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil depots and refineries in recent weeks has tightened the screws on an already strained fuel supply chain, threatening to leave drivers and industry in the cold this winter. For ordinary Russians, the consequences of this campaign are becoming painfully clear at the pump and beyond.
Petrol prices have risen by more than 10 per cent in some regions since August, according to local media reports. In Moscow, queues at petrol stations have returned for the first time since the Soviet era, a potent symbol of the economic strain caused by the conflict. The price of diesel, the lifeblood of Russia’s agricultural and transport sectors, has surged even further.
The strikes have targeted key infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. In mid-September, a drone attack on a major oil storage facility in Tver Oblast sent plumes of black smoke over the city, destroying an estimated 20,000 tonnes of fuel. Similar attacks have hit refineries in Rostov, Kursk and Belgorod, all crucial for supplying the front lines and civilian populations.
The cumulative effect is a logistical nightmare. Russia’s domestic fuel market is now feeling the strain of redirected supply, as Moscow diverts resources to the front. The result is a growing shortage at the very moment when demand for heating oil and diesel peaks. The winter months are the toughest for Russia’s economy, and this year the squeeze is especially severe.
For the working class in Russia’s industrial heartlands, this is not a distant geopolitical calculation. It is a daily reality. Tractor drivers in the Krasnodar region cannot afford to harvest crops. Long-haul truckers face idle days as they queue for hours for a limited allocation of diesel. Factory managers warn that production may have to be scaled back if fuel prices do not stabilise.
The Russian government has responded with emergency measures. In early October, the Ministry of Energy announced a ban on the export of diesel and petrol to “stabilise the domestic market”. But this move has angered trading partners in Central Asia and Belarus, who rely on Russian fuel. It is a short-term fix that threatens long-term diplomatic ties.
And the strikes keep coming. Ukraine has made it clear that it will continue to target Russia’s fuel infrastructure as part of its strategy to degrade Moscow’s ability to wage war. This is asymmetric warfare aimed not at battlefield victories but at the economic arteries that sustain the conflict.
The irony is not lost on analysts. Russia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, is now struggling to keep its own tankers full. Sanctions on technology needed for refinery maintenance have compounded the problem, with Western companies refusing to supply parts. The Russian oil industry is being slowly choked.
For the average citizen, the winter will be one of scarcity and frustration. Heating oil is already in short supply in some northern regions. The combination of rising prices and limited availability could lead to social unrest, a prospect that unnerves a Kremlin already facing mounting war fatigue.
This is a story about more than missiles and drones. It is about the real economy, the one that affects the price of a loaf of bread and a journey to work. It is about ordinary Russians bearing the cost of a war they did not choose. And as the mercury drops, the pressure on Moscow’s fuel crisis will only intensify.
