The war in Ukraine has arrived at the Kremlin’s doorstep. A drone attack on an oil refinery outside Moscow, confirmed by Russian officials on Tuesday, has sent plumes of black smoke over the capital and forced UK defence chiefs to reassess the conflict’s trajectory. This is not a distant battlefield.
This is a strike on the industrial heart of Russia’s war machine and the homes of its oligarchs and ordinary citizens alike. For the average Briton, it means higher energy bills and a reminder that the cost of this war is paid in British pounds as well as Ukrainian lives. Defence sources in London, speaking under the condition of anonymity, call this a “tactical game-changer”.
The refinery, which supplies fuel to Russian military aircraft, is critical to Moscow’s ability to sustain its campaign. Its destruction, while militarily significant, raises the spectre of retaliation against Ukrainian infrastructure and a further squeeze on global energy markets. Already, Brent crude has nudged upwards this morning.
The attack also reveals Ukraine’s growing capacity to strike deep inside Russian territory, a capability that British and American political leaders have long feared would provoke an escalation. Downing Street has been cautious, urging restraint while quietly continuing to supply long-range drones. But this is a delicate balance.
For the steelworkers in Sheffield and the taxi drivers in Manchester, the war now feels closer than ever. They see the same queues at petrol stations, the same rising prices for heating oil. The government’s energy price guarantee is already costing billions.
A sustained disruption to Russian refining could undo that safety net. Union leaders this morning are calling for a windfall tax on oil giants to cushion the blow for working families. The Trades Union Congress says profit margins at BP and Shell have soared while real wages have stagnated.
This attack will only sharpen that debate. For now, the smoke over Moscow serves as a grim symbol: no city is safe. The war is no longer a conflict in a faraway land.
It is here, burning in the price of fuel and the fear of what comes next.
