The prospect of a US-Iran agreement on the nuclear file has raised a central question in Beirut: will it loosen Hezbollah’s grip on the Lebanese state, or cement it?
For months, diplomatic sources in Washington and Tehran have signalled progress towards a framework that would limit uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. Those same sources have been notably silent, however, on whether the deal would address Iran’s regional proxy network, chief among them Hezbollah.
The ambiguity has left Lebanon’s political class and its battered population in a state of anxious waiting. Hezbollah, the Shia militant group and political party, has used its arsenal and its alignment with Tehran to dominate Lebanese decision-making for more than a decade. Its opponents fear a US-Iran deal that does not constrain Iran’s ability to finance and arm the group will lock in the status quo.
“The nuclear deal is not a settlement of regional issues,” said a European diplomat based in Beirut who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The Iranians will not bargain away Hezbollah for anything. It is their most strategic asset in the Levant.”
The United States has long demanded that Hezbollah, which it designates a terrorist organisation, disarm and that its military wing be integrated into Lebanon’s national security apparatus. Iran has resisted, arguing that the group is a legitimate resistance force against Israel.
The Lebanese state itself is a victim of this impasse. For two years, the country has been without a president or a fully functional government, its economy in freefall after the 2020 port explosion. Hezbollah and its allies have blocked any reform that would weaken their hold, while Western donors have refused to provide aid without a credible commitment to fight corruption and assert state sovereignty.
A senior Lebanese official close to the caretaker prime minister said the government had received no clarity from Washington or Tehran. “We are being treated as a secondary issue,” he said. “The big powers want a deal on the bomb. For them, Lebanon is small change.”
What is clear is that Hezbollah’s posture remains unchanged. The group continues to train fighters, display its missile arsenal, and enforce its political will. Any US-Iran deal that does not explicitly curtail these activities would be interpreted in Beirut as a green light.
Analysts point to the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as a precedent. The 2015 deal did not address Iran’s regional activities and was followed by an expansion of its influence in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war deepened during that period.
“If history is a guide, a nuclear deal without regional constraints will allow Iran to double down on its proxy strategy,” said Rami Khoury, a professor at the American University of Beirut. “Lebanon will remain the weak link, held hostage by Hezbollah’s guns and Iran’s money.”
There is also the question of succession. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 85. Any deal that secures his successor’s financial lifeline could entrench the revolutionary guard’s influence for years.
For ordinary Lebanese, the consequences are tangible. The electricity grid provides as little as four hours of power a day. The currency has lost 95 per cent of its value since 2019. Doctors and teachers are emigrating in record numbers. Hezbollah’s political strength has insulated it from blame, but the broader population sees little hope.
“We are used to being sacrificed,” said a teacher in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, who asked not to be named. “But if the Americans and Iranians do this deal and leave us to Hezbollah, there will be no Lebanon left.”
The next move is uncertain. The US has not publicly linked the nuclear talks to Hezbollah, though Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that any deal must address “all aspects of Iran’s destabilising behaviour”. Iran’s foreign ministry has dismissed such linkage as “unrealistic”.
The result may be a diplomatic silence that speaks louder than words: the superpowers will save their own deal, and Lebanon will remain in the shadow of Hezbollah’s guns.
