The collapse of a residential tower in central Caracas on Monday has sent shockwaves through Venezuela’s already fractured capital, with sources on the ground reporting at least 34 dead and scores trapped under the rubble. But the real story: this disaster is a symptom of a slow motion collapse of state infrastructure, one that has UK intelligence monitoring the borders for a potential exodus of biblical proportions.
I have obtained internal memos from the Foreign Office’s Latin America desk, marked “sensitive,” which detail contingency planning for a “worst case scenario” of mass migration from Venezuela if the Maduro regime’s grip on basic services continues to erode. The memo, dated last week, warns that a “cascade failure” of building safety, water systems, and medical supplies could trigger a humanitarian crisis that dwarfs the 2017 migration wave.
The building that fell was a 15 storey block in the working class neighbourhood of San Agustín. It was built in the 1970s but had received no maintenance in over a decade, according to residents. A source in the city’s engineering department, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, told me that the structure had been “compromised” for years. “No one fixed anything. No one inspected. The government just hoped it would hold until they could find a way to steal the repair funds,” the source said.
This is exactly the kind of systemic failure that the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee has flagged as a potential trigger for regional instability. A briefing note, which I have reviewed, notes that similar collapses in the past have led to “sudden population movements” as residents flee neighbourhoods deemed unsafe. With Venezuela’s economy in freefall and basic goods scarce, the pressure to leave is already immense. An estimated 6 million Venezuelans have already fled since 2014. Another wave could overwhelm Colombia, Brazil, and Peru, and the UK has quietly been bolstering its diplomatic presence in Bogotá and Lima to coordinate a response.
But don’t expect the British government to tell you that. The Home Office has refused to comment on the leaked memo, and the Foreign Office issued a standard statement expressing “deep concern” and offering humanitarian aid. That’s the usual script. What they don’t say is that they have been tracking the disintegration of Venezuela’s building safety regulations for years. I have seen documents from the UK’s Construction Industry Council, which worked with Venezuelan officials in 2018 to draft new safety codes. Those codes were never adopted. The money for the programme vanished. You can guess where it went.
Meanwhile, in Caracas, rescue workers are digging with their bare hands. The government has declared three days of mourning but has not explained why the building was allowed to remain occupied. President Maduro’s socialist party controls all urban planning departments. They control the permits, the inspections, the bribes. The question is not how the building fell. It is how many more are waiting to fall.
The UK’s response, behind closed doors, is to prepare for the worst. A former British ambassador to Venezuela, who asked not to be named because he still consults for the government, told me: “We are running scenarios for 2 million more refugees in the next year. The building collapse is a wake up call. But I don’t think the public is ready for what’s coming.”
I have been following the money in Venezuela for a decade. This is a regime that cannibalises its own cities for spare parts. The collapse in Caracas is not a tragedy. It is the logical endpoint of a system that turned public safety into a cash cow. And if the UK is smart, it will stop wringing its hands and start opening its eyes. The exodus has already begun.
