A diplomatic breakthrough, long gestating in the shadows of Whitehall, has finally surfaced. Sources close to the negotiations confirm that a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, mediated by British intelligence and the Foreign Office, is set to be announced within 48 hours. The deal, brokered by a former MI6 station chief turned independent envoy, aims to resolve the maritime border dispute that has simmered for over a decade.
Uncovered documents suggest it includes revenue-sharing from the Karish and Qana gas fields, with a British-chaired trust overseeing disbursement. This is not a peace treaty, but it is the closest the two states have come to a formal understanding since 1949. The British hand is undeniable: the language in the draft mirrors the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement's clause on consent and proportionality.
I have seen the text. It is a masterclass in ambiguity designed to give both sides plausible deniability. The Lebanese will say they have not recognised Israel.
The Israelis will say they have secured their energy future. Hezbollah, which has rattled sabres over the blockade, appears to have given tacit approval - likely extracted through backchannels involving Qatari and Saudi intermediaries. The real question is what London gets.
Sources in the City tell me that British companies, notably BP and Shell, are guaranteed first refusal on exploration contracts. This is a resource play dressed in diplomatic robes. And it comes at a cost.
The price of this framework is a quiet British commitment to curb arms sales to the Gulf states that might upset the balance. I have seen the internal memos: 'We must prioritise energy security over armaments liquidity.' Not everyone in Whitehall is happy.
The MoD is furious. But the Prime Minister needs a foreign policy win. The deal will be presented as a blueprint for regional stability.
Don't believe the spin. It is a carve-up. The only winners are the gas companies and the political careers of those who need a headline before the election.
The bodies? They are buried in the fine print. Watch the streets of Beirut and Tel Aviv.
The first protests will come when the revenue figures leak. That is when the real story begins.
