UK intelligence has confirmed a significant Russian military build-up near a key Donbas city, with satellite imagery and intercepted communications pointing to an imminent siege. Sources within the Ministry of Defence, speaking on condition of anonymity, have revealed that Russian forces have amassed artillery, armoured columns, and logistical supplies within 15 kilometres of the city's outskirts. The intelligence assessment warns that the Kremlin is preparing a grinding, encirclement operation reminiscent of the brutal tactics used in Mariupol and Bakhmut.
One official described the situation as 'gravely serious', noting that the Russian command appears willing to absorb heavy casualties to secure a symbolic victory before the onset of winter. Documents obtained by our newsroom show that the UK's Joint Intelligence Committee has rated the probability of a full-scale assault as 'high', with a timeline measured in days, not weeks. The city, whose name is being withheld for operational security, has a pre-war population of over 100,000 and sits astride critical supply lines for Ukrainian forces in the eastern theatre.
Ukrainian defenders are already reporting a sharp increase in artillery barrages and probing attacks from Russian reconnaissance units. A senior Ukrainian military officer, speaking via encrypted signal, said: 'They are testing our defences. They will try to starve us out, hit us from the air, and then send in waves of infantry. We need more ammunition and heavy armour.' The officer's voice crackled with the static of a man who has not slept in days.
The UK intelligence warning comes as a flurry of diplomatic activity unfolds at the United Nations. A leaked draft resolution, circulated among Security Council members, calls for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridors. But few expect Moscow to heed the call. Western diplomats have privately confessed that the window for meaningful deterrence has closed.
What makes this build-up different, sources tell me, is the sheer scale of the force concentration. Russia has relocated elements of at least three combined arms armies to the sector, including units freshly rotated from the Kharkiv front. They are stockpiling glide bombs, thermobaric munitions, and advanced electronic warfare systems designed to blind Ukrainian drones. This is not a feint; this is a spearpoint aimed at the heart of the Donbas.
I have seen the satellite images. They show rows of howitzers and multiple launch rocket systems dug into firing positions. Convoys of fuel trucks stretch for miles along rutted roads. The evidence is undeniable: this is the preparatory phase of a major offensive. The only question that remains is whether Ukraine can hold. And for how long.
The city's defenders are outnumbered and outgunned, but they have the advantage of prepared fortifications and intimate knowledge of the terrain. They are digging in, establishing kill zones, and stockpiling whatever supplies they can get. But without a surge of Western aid, the maths is brutal. Russia can afford to trade three soldiers for one Ukrainian; it cannot afford to lose another city.
The clock is ticking. The intelligence is clear. The danger is not a threat; it is a countdown. And in this game, the bodies always pile up before the world acts.
